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 Viestin otsikko: 1.Bundesliiga 10.-12.11. pe-su
ViestiLähetetty: 09.11.2006, 22:02 
Status: JäsenLiittynyt: 05.05.2004, 18:39Viestit: 5609Paikkakunta: Helsinki
Pisteitä: 7
1.Bundesliiga 10.-12.11. pe-su

Werder Bremen Dortmund 63 22 15
o/u 2,5: 60 40

Frankfurt Bielefeld 49 27 24
o/u 2,5: 48 52

Hamburger SV M.gladbach 56 26 18
o/u 2,5: 51 49

Hertha Bochum 62 23 15
o/u 2,5: 57 43

Leverkusen B.München 30 28 42
o/u 2,5: 57 43

Schalke Mainz 67 20 13
o/u 2,5: 57 43

Wolfsburg Cottbus 54 26 20
o/u 2,5: 51 49

Aachen Nürnberg 37 28 35
o/u 2,5: 57 43

Hannover Stuttgart 35 28 37
o/u 2,5: 47 53
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 Viestin otsikko:
ViestiLähetetty: 10.11.2006, 12:37 
Status: JäsenLiittynyt: 05.05.2004, 18:39Viestit: 5609Paikkakunta: Helsinki
Pisteitä: 7
Saksan Tietäjältä ->

Werder Bremen Borussia Dortmund 65 22 13 o/u 2,5 61 39
Bremen was improved on Tue after the flu seems to let off. Not 100% themselves though. Only 2 days off in between. Will they recover after that influenca. Atleast key playmaker Borowski is back after a longish injury lay off. Big plus. Dortmund fought a lot against Aachen. Had all the play but not much going for them. Took 16 corners though. Can't see anything else than over goals here. Even if the less than succesful strike force of Dortmund will have problems with Bundesliga's best centrhalf duo Mertesacker(probably the best in the world right now) & Naldo. BVB likely to start with all 3 strikers Smolarek, Frei, Valdez. The last one of course a Bremen forward for all of his German career, before his summer move. Doesn't know Mertesacker though, who also came in just before the the transfer window closed.

Hamburger SV Borussia Mönchengladbach 52 30 18 o/u 2,5 42 58
2 big disappointments of the season. HSV just keep getting worse. Luck against too on Tue. Gladbach terrible against Schalke. Nothing was working. Maybe the unlucky own goal (for 0-1 in the 11th min broke their spirit). Gladbach terrible travellers (won only the meaningles season ending game in Frankfurt out of last 18 away games). Anything is possible against this run of HSV though. They haven't won at home since April 9th.

FC Schalke 04 1. FSV Mainz 05 67 22 11 o/u 2,5 51 49
Huge home advantage and the difference in class is enormous. Not that high scoring though. Schalke pours forwards, but lack creativity without Lincoln (small chance of returning here) and Altintop not the same man here as last season in Lautern. Kuranyi can't have a chance easy enough to score from. Mainz defence not as bad as the rest of the team.

Bayer Leverkusen Bayern München 34 29 37 o/u 2,5 52 48
Historical balance 11-5-11 46:43. Bayern have had a torrid time against Leverkusen in recent years. The hosts sorely miss Juan in defence and Freier upfront as he was red carded on Wed, which means Lev is likely to start Voronin as lone striker. Castro and Ramelov notable absentees too. Bayern still without 5 classy internationals. Leverkusen good on Wed in Bochum and Bayern at home to Hannover absolutely awful, which is well reflected by Kicker scoring chance chart, that indicates 3 chances for Bayern, who went a goal down early on. Magath, Kaiser and Hoeness do however tend to turn these kind of performances quickly around.

Hertha BSC Berlin VfL Bochum 64 23 13 o/u 2,5 56 44
Hertha one of the most home dependent sides in Europe. Dreaming of CL (Top3) place. The ultimate YoYo team (looking for 7th relegation since '90) Bochum were woeful on Wed at home against neighbours Leverkusen. Hertha likeley to be without key playmaker Bastürk (very small chance of returning, probably rested and taken in only if in trouble). Bochum have looked very fired up lately (not on Wed though).

Eintracht Frankfurt Arminia Bielefeld 52 28 20 o/u 2,5 46 54
2 very home toned teams. Bielefeld lost59% of their away games last season despite finishing a notch above Frankfurt. Haven't won away this season and never on their 10 visits to Frankfurt, who haven't lost at home this season. AB a really positive suprise this season despite being clearly weakend by the summer transfers. They don't have the same class as Frankfurt. Not much weaker, but a notch weaker. With this home advantage I'm suprised at the generally over even money available. Weissenberger now missing for the hosts, but much more importantly Masmanidis continues on the injury list as on Wed. His creativity will be missed by the guests.

VfL Wolfsburg Energie Cottbus 45 30 25 o/u 2,5 41 59
Wolfsburg has had a disappointing season, but have collected a suprising amount of points, when one takes into consideration the awful injury problems they've had since the beginning on. Well supported at home and might even see Bokaye come in from the bench. The other main offensive forces Klimowicz and Santana continue in the treatment room. Cottbus have done well lately (except in midweek) with away in at Aachen, away draw at Bremen and home win against Hertha. Have all key players fit and will give the injury ravaged Wolves a hard time.

Hannover 96 VfB Stuttgart 29 28 43 o/u 2,5 56 44
96ers up and dow. Their performance last week Friday at home against Bochum was by far the worst performance of any team this season. They followed it up with winning in the Allianz Arena against the "mighty" Bayern. Still missing Brdaric. VfB a great away team, who have found even some home form lately with wins against Leverkusen, Schalke and HSV on Tue, when they didn't perform at all, but got the run of the ball as teams do against the Hamburgers this season. VfB continue without Tomasson and Meira (whom I don't really rate as a miss).

Alemannia Aachen 1. FC Nürnberg 32 29 39 o/u 2,5 49 51
Aachen continues as the worst team in this division in my book, despite their goalless draw at Dortmund on Tue. The guests were impressive for long periods in their home defeat against Bremen. Can dominate, but have no real scorers. Hosts without injury problems, guests with some long term ones. Aachen have really struggled at home, when expected to go for it. Will do so here too. Nürnberg has had difficulties in hanging on to their leads, like when they gifted Dortmund a late equallizer.
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 Viestin otsikko:
ViestiLähetetty: 10.11.2006, 16:50 
Status: JäsenLiittynyt: 06.03.2003, 14:51Viestit: 420Paikkakunta: Lahti
Pisteitä: 0
Kehittelen tässä parhaillaan ennustemallia, joka estimoisi joukkueiden loppupisteet jo pelattujen otteluiden perusteella, ja tämmöinen rankingi Bundes1:stä 11 pelatun kierroksen jälkeen; jostain syystä noudattelee aika pitkälti nykyistä sarjataulukkoa:

1. Werder Bremen 80p
2. Stuttgart 67p
3. Schalke 60p
4. Hertha 57p
5. Bielefeld 56p
6. Bayern Munchen 56p
7. Frankfurt 53p
8. Leverkusen 51p
9. Dortmund 50p
10. Wolfsburg 50p
11. Cottbus 49p
12. Nurnberg 48p
13. Aachen 42p
14. Mönchengladbach 38p
15. Hamburger SV 35p
16. Hannover 31p
17. Bochum 27p
18. Mainz 27p

En tiedä, onko tästä kellekään mitään iloa, mutta kunhan väsäsin....

Viikonlopun ottelupareista voisi "varmimpia" kotivoittajia tämän mukaan olla Schalke, Hertha ja Werder Bremen (yllättäen rankingin top4 joukkueita ja vastassa rankingin pohjat, paitsi WB:llä)

Päivittelen tuota sitten kierroksittain, niin nähdään miten nuo tulevat muuttumaan...
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_________________
Mies pelkää kohtaloansa,
epäilee avujaan,
jos koskaan peliin uskalla
ei täyttä panostaan

James Graham, Montrosen markiisi (1612-1650)
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 Viestin otsikko:
ViestiLähetetty: 10.11.2006, 19:59 
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Status: JäsenLiittynyt: 13.02.2003, 17:31Viestit: 923Paikkakunta: Jyväskylä
Pisteitä: 817
Kassa: +562.25 yks. Palautus%: 112.01% Panosten ka: 5.96 yks. Vetoja: 785
Hannover-Stuttgart 2 2,35 47% NB

Materiaali selkeästi puoltaa vierailijoita, kotietu laventaa suosikin asemaa.
Hannover vielä voitoitta kotonaan. Se ei kyenny voittamaan helpohkoja vastujajia Bochumia eikä Aachenia kotikentällä. Nyt vastaan asettuu sarjakakkonen, joka porskuttaa myös kuntopuntarin kakkosena. Suttgard vieraissa ilman tappiota.
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 Viestin otsikko:
ViestiLähetetty: 11.11.2006, 14:55 
Avatar
Status: JäsenLiittynyt: 11.08.2006, 12:10Viestit: 594Paikkakunta: Turku
Pisteitä: 279
Kerroinhaukka pelaa:

Frankfurt -0.25 56% 1.84 188Bet 3/10

Leverkusenia ja Gladbachia olisi tehnyt mieli pelaa mutta jätetään väliin nyt kuitenkin.
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