Brazil: Serie A : Gremio Porto Alegre -Atletico Paranaense
Today's matches in Brazil are very tough to call, but I will suggest a little on this. We sided with Atletico Paranaense last weekend in their 2-0 defeat of Vasco da Gama, who were hard hit by international call ups and they meet an opponent with similar issues today. Those points took AP to the top of the table and a fifth stright win will do so again this evening, that might be a big ask, but a point would see them level with Sao Paulo and that looks an easier target and a result perhaps the host could also live with. This is traditionally a low scoring series, with the last five h2h meeting producing a maximum of one goal. Therefore, if AP could find a goal, it might well be enough for at least a share of the points and there is every indication that Gremio will be more vulnerable than usual this evening. They are without goalkeeper Marcelo Grohe and central defender Frickson Erazo ( one win in four without him this season, seven goals conceded) who are on international duty and right back Rafael Galhardo ( lost both starts he has missed 2-0....although both were road games) is injured and they lack the protection of key defensive midfieder Ramiro who has a long term injury and is yet to play this season ( nine goals conceded through six starts, four at the same stage last season). Atletico plus the draw for me.
Edit: Late news that Galhardo trained on Saturday and has been named in the squad, that changes things slightly, so I have reduced stakes, but the central spine of the team still looks weak.
Atletico Paranaense +0.5 ball 2.09 asian line/Sportmarket.
Gremio: Braian Rodríguez, Bruno Grassi, Douglas, Edinho, Fellipe Bastos, Galhardo, Geromel, Giuliano, Júnior, Lincoln, Luan, Lucas Ramon, Maicon, Marcelo Oliveira, Pedro Rocha, Rafael Thyere, Rhodolfo, Tiago, Walace,
Yuri Mamute , Vitinho.