Jatkona vielä 2-div-peli, menköön samaan ketjuun nyt.
Tromsø vs Vaalerenga
Pick. Tromso (-1/4). Medium stakes.
Tromso: 5-1-2 (16-8) overall and 4-0-0 (11-2) at home.
Vaalerenga: 3-5-0 (9-6) overall and 1-3-0 (5-4) away
Top of the table versus the only unbeaten team in the league. I've watched most of Vaalerenga's games on TV and though their football is not a pretty sight, they are a tough team to beat. On average they have scored a little over 1 goal per game and conceded 0.75. This has been sufficient to give them get 14 points in 8 games, which is nothing short of a small miracle (all of their wins have been 1-0 victories). Vaalerenga can not keep this up forever, and I see it as likely that their first loss of the season comes here. The pitiful performance they delivered in the last away game against Molde (a 1-1 draw) also points in this direction.
Tromso is (a bit surprisingly) in the lead. They are a bit shaky when travelling, but this is normal for Tromso, and they are first and foremost a home team. Many teams regard their away game against Tromso as the toughest away game of the season and rightly so. In fact, even mighty Rosenborg fears this game and Tromso have force-fed them large slices of humble pie on several occasions. Looking at history we see that the record for this particular meeting is 5-6-1 (19-12) in favour of Tromso and so, over the years, Vaalerenga have only won this game 1 time. Given history and what I've seen Tromso and Vaalerenga do so far this season, I rule out the chance of an away win almost completely. For me the question is home win or draw. Draw has occured frequently and it has indeed been the result of the last 3 meetings here. Still I feel Tromso has more to offer this time, and I'm willing to risk a medium stake on them. Tromso have a perfect home record so far. They have had an extremely tight defense at home, while the dynamic trio Gamst Pedersen, Aarst and Strand score goals-a-plenty, nearly 3 per home game in average. With Vaalerenga's scoring problems, they will have difficulties keeping up with Tromso and if Tromso manage to get the fire going, Vaalerenga are dead meat.
Now, given the risk for draw, some insurance is in order, and I play this as a (-1/4) handicap. In case you try
Tromso (-1/4), you can find this handicap at Betfair @ 1.92 (1.87 after 5% commission) and at Pointbet @ 1.89.
A last pick, which is in fact a goodie:
Norway 2. Div (Avd 4):
Alta vs Kolstad
Pick: Alta @ 1.50 (NordicBet or Expekt)
When I was sitting down to write the preview, I saw that one of BettingAdvice.com's expert had picked the same game. Instead of doing double work, I'll simply provide you with the link:
http://www.bettingadvice.com/showPredic ... idMenu=177
Basically it's class difference between two teams that not long ago were separated by two divisions (like Aalesund and Kongsvinger were last year). Add Alta's homefield advantage with artificial grass and a few absent players for Kolstad, and you get a yum-yum situation.