Norja, 1.divisioona
Lähetetty:
Norjan agenttimme kertoo seuraavaa 8)
Aalesund vs Vard
Pick: Aalesund (-2) @ 1.95 (Fonbet). Large stake.
Match records:
Aalesund: 6-1-1 (22-10) overall and 4-0-0 (17-4) at home
Vard: 1-2-5 (9-18 ) overall and 1-0-3 (3-8 ) away
The banker of the week as mentioned in a previous email. Class difference here and Aalesund are expected to win big. Vard surprised everybody (including themselves, I guess) by leading 4-1 over Kongsvinger at HT last weekend, but they couldn't handle the situation and lost 4-5 (!). They will not get such chances here. Now, the only problem is the odds. 1.30 (Admiral) is the best 1X2-odds on offer, and that's kind of pointless other than in a combo. NordicBet's (-1) handicap @ 1.55 is more tempting. Note that this is non-Asian, so that Aalesund needs a goal difference of 2 or more. If you want to increase the odds further, you can find Aalesund (-2) @ 1.95 (asian handicap) at Fonbet. With Aalesund's recent 6-0 thrashing of Tromsdalen in mind, this handicap is what I'll take. Large stake.
Kongsvinger vs Sandefjord
Pick: Sandefjord (0) @ 1.80 (Fonbet). Medium stake.
Match records:
Kongsvinger: 6-1-1 (20-6) overall and 3-0-1 (7-1) at home
Sandefjord: 5-2-1 (16-7) overall and 2-1-1 (6-5) away
Kongsvinger are widely regarded as overachievers, and after a very good start they fell flat on their faces, losing 1-0 at home for mediocre Raufoss 2 weeks ago. They nearly did it again last weekend when they were close to losing for Vard (see Aalesund preview for more), but they managed to save face and won narrowly 5-4. They have good results both home and away so far, but take into consideration that they have not yet met the strongest teams in the league, and a somewhat less pretty picture emerges.
Sandefjord were close to promotion both in 2002 and 2003 (finished 3rd both times), but didn't quite make it. This season has started reasonably well and their only loss of the season came against table leaders Start in the last away game (a 3-0 loss). Kongsvinger on the other hand, came up from division 2 this year, and must be considered more of a lightweight than Sandefjord. I expect Sandefjord to show class and give Kongsvinger a long overdue reality check here. Draw is an result both teams could live with, so I play Sandefjord (0) @ 1.80 (Fonbet) and get the stake returned in case of a draw.
Pors Grenland vs Mandalskameratene
Pick: Mandalskameratene @ 2.20 (Expekt). Medium stake.
Match records:
Pors: 1-1-6 (9-20) overall and 1-1-2 (8-10) at home
Mandalskameratene: 4-1-3 (12-14) overall and 2-1-1 (7-7) away
Pors have taken 1 point in the last 6 games and are in free fall with respect to form. Their cup loss for Kvik/Halden (division 2) last week was embarrassing and illustrates the problems Pors have at the moment. To add to their problems, defender Vetle Odden is banned for the next 3 games after getting sent off in the last game. Mandalskameratene is a decent mid-table team who have begun to pick up form lately with 7 points in the last 3 games. No injuries or suspensions that I know of. I believe they will take all 3 points here without great difficulties and continue their good run. I take Mandalskameratene @ 2.20 with medium stakes.
Aalesund vs Vard
Pick: Aalesund (-2) @ 1.95 (Fonbet). Large stake.
Match records:
Aalesund: 6-1-1 (22-10) overall and 4-0-0 (17-4) at home
Vard: 1-2-5 (9-18 ) overall and 1-0-3 (3-8 ) away
The banker of the week as mentioned in a previous email. Class difference here and Aalesund are expected to win big. Vard surprised everybody (including themselves, I guess) by leading 4-1 over Kongsvinger at HT last weekend, but they couldn't handle the situation and lost 4-5 (!). They will not get such chances here. Now, the only problem is the odds. 1.30 (Admiral) is the best 1X2-odds on offer, and that's kind of pointless other than in a combo. NordicBet's (-1) handicap @ 1.55 is more tempting. Note that this is non-Asian, so that Aalesund needs a goal difference of 2 or more. If you want to increase the odds further, you can find Aalesund (-2) @ 1.95 (asian handicap) at Fonbet. With Aalesund's recent 6-0 thrashing of Tromsdalen in mind, this handicap is what I'll take. Large stake.
Kongsvinger vs Sandefjord
Pick: Sandefjord (0) @ 1.80 (Fonbet). Medium stake.
Match records:
Kongsvinger: 6-1-1 (20-6) overall and 3-0-1 (7-1) at home
Sandefjord: 5-2-1 (16-7) overall and 2-1-1 (6-5) away
Kongsvinger are widely regarded as overachievers, and after a very good start they fell flat on their faces, losing 1-0 at home for mediocre Raufoss 2 weeks ago. They nearly did it again last weekend when they were close to losing for Vard (see Aalesund preview for more), but they managed to save face and won narrowly 5-4. They have good results both home and away so far, but take into consideration that they have not yet met the strongest teams in the league, and a somewhat less pretty picture emerges.
Sandefjord were close to promotion both in 2002 and 2003 (finished 3rd both times), but didn't quite make it. This season has started reasonably well and their only loss of the season came against table leaders Start in the last away game (a 3-0 loss). Kongsvinger on the other hand, came up from division 2 this year, and must be considered more of a lightweight than Sandefjord. I expect Sandefjord to show class and give Kongsvinger a long overdue reality check here. Draw is an result both teams could live with, so I play Sandefjord (0) @ 1.80 (Fonbet) and get the stake returned in case of a draw.
Pors Grenland vs Mandalskameratene
Pick: Mandalskameratene @ 2.20 (Expekt). Medium stake.
Match records:
Pors: 1-1-6 (9-20) overall and 1-1-2 (8-10) at home
Mandalskameratene: 4-1-3 (12-14) overall and 2-1-1 (7-7) away
Pors have taken 1 point in the last 6 games and are in free fall with respect to form. Their cup loss for Kvik/Halden (division 2) last week was embarrassing and illustrates the problems Pors have at the moment. To add to their problems, defender Vetle Odden is banned for the next 3 games after getting sent off in the last game. Mandalskameratene is a decent mid-table team who have begun to pick up form lately with 7 points in the last 3 games. No injuries or suspensions that I know of. I believe they will take all 3 points here without great difficulties and continue their good run. I take Mandalskameratene @ 2.20 with medium stakes.