Norja, 1.div

[Neo]

Pelasin itse pois agentin vinkin 8)

T: Neo

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Tromsdalen vs Stromsgodset: 2 @ 2.00 (Ladbrokes)

Tromsdalen: 1-1-7 (6-28 ) overall and 1-0-3 (4-8 ) at home
Stromsgodset: 4-3-2 (15-12) overall and 2-0-2 (5-7) away

Tromsdalen at the bottom of the table with 4 points and looks like a sure relegation candidate. They have taken the worst beatings in the division with two 6-0 away losses against Aalesund and Skeid. They have a leaky defense and scoring problems, and while they have a small home field advantage by playing on artificial grass, it has not given them much this season. Now for the interesting part: This already poor team has huge problems with suspensions and injuries before this game, and among the absentees are Baard karlsen (top scorer), Vegard Berg Johansen (experienced striker) and Lars Nymo Trulsen (their best defender this season). People who have talked to the players report that they are pessimistic about this game and don't see much chance to grab points.

Stromsgodset (6th in the table) have had an up-and-down start to the season. They have had injury problems, but the situation has improved recently, and according to those who follow Stromsgodset more closely than I do, they are travelling with a strong squad to meet Tromsdalen. Their last 4-1 home win against Hodd was convincing, and could easily have been even larger (according to those who watched the game). Finally, it should be mentioned that one of Stromsgodset's two away losses was 3-0 at the hands of promotion candidate Aalesund (who ate Tromsdalen alive with 6-0 few weeks back).

The reason for the generous odds for Stromsgodset is perhaps based on Tromsdalens first win of the season in their last home game against Haugesund (which was followed by the humiliating 6-0 away loss against Skeid). Those who watched the game report that the 3-1 score does not accurately represent what actually happened. Their goal keeper was the man of the match and in addition he was lucky (Haugesund had 3 shots that hit the wood). The 1-1 home draw against Vard was of similar type.

I believe we have a huge misestimation of odds here. Given Tromsdalen's many absences, the luck involved in the two games where they've taken points and Stromsgodset's improving form, I reckon Stromsgodset's winning chances larger as 50% and I'm willing to risk a medium-to-large bet on odds around 2, which is what most bookmakers offer. Odds 2.10 can be found (Admiral) but I will play at Ladbrokes who offer Stromsgodset @ 2.00.

[capu]

Raufoss-Skeid under 3.5 maalia 1.85
63% panos 7/10
Nordic/Centre
Kerroin on kyllä tässä hinattu mielestäni turhan ylös, vaikka Skeid onkin ollut alkukaudesta sarjan runsasmaalisimpia joukkueita. Skeid murskasi edellisellä kierroksella heikon Tromsdalenin kotonaan 6-0 ja tuokin tulos taisi tuoda kertoimeen noin kymmenyksen plussaa.
Raufoss on ollut alkukaudesta surkea joukkue on sarjassa toiseksi viimeisenä saldolla 1-17 maaliero -11. Viimeistely on ollut joukkueelle vaikeaa 4 kotiottelussa aikaan on saatu vain 2 maalia. Skeidin hyökkäysvoittoinen pelityyli tuo maaleja kumpaankin päähän kenttää, mutta raufossin surkea hyökkäys tuskin pääsee vastaiskuilla kuittailemaan.
oma veikkaus vierailijoille 0-2.
Skeidin voiton pelasin myös pienellä pois expektiltä, 2.70 on markkinoiden korkein kerroin ja 40% tuolle irtoaa kevyesti.

Edit: Vaikka en historialle annakaan juuri painoarvoa arvioissani. Niin mainittakoon vielä että 8/10 edellisestä joukkueiden kohtaamisesta on päättynyt underiin.