MLB 23.7.

[MarkusM]

<TABLE BORDER="1"><TR><TH>Pvm</TH><TH>Peli</TH><TH>Joukkue1</TH><TH>Joukkue2</TH><TH>Tn1</TH><TH>Tn2</TH><TH>Kerroin1</TH><TH>Kerroin2</TH><TH>OA1</TH><TH>OA2</TH><TH>-</TH><TH>-</TH></TR><TR><TD>23.07.2006</TD><TD>ML</TD><TD>Anaheim(Jered Weaver)</TD><TD>Kansas City(Brandon Duckworth)</TD><TD>65</TD><TD>35</TD><TD>1,55</TD><TD>2,78</TD><TD>1,01</TD><TD>0,97</TD><TD>Pinnacle</TD><TD>Mansion</TD></TR><TR><TD>23.07.2006</TD><TD>ML</TD><TD>Baltimore(E. Bedard)</TD><TD>Tampa Bay(S. Kazmir)</TD><TD>44</TD><TD>56</TD><TD>2,08</TD><TD>1,9</TD><TD>0,92</TD><TH>1,06</TH><TD>Pinnacle</TD><TD>Mansion</TD></TR><TR><TD>23.07.2006</TD><TD>ML</TD><TD>Boston(Jon Lester)</TD><TD>Seattle(J. Washburn)</TD><TD>56</TD><TD>44</TD><TD>1,81</TD><TD>2,18</TD><TD>1,02</TD><TD>0,96</TD><TD>Pinnacle</TD><TD>Mansion</TD></TR><TR><TD>23.07.2006</TD><TD>ML</TD><TD>Chicago Cubs(Carlos Marmol)</TD><TD>Washington(T. Armas)</TD><TD>47</TD><TD>53</TD><TD>2,05</TD><TD>1,92</TD><TD>0,96</TD><TD>1,02</TD><TD>Mansion</TD><TD>Mansion</TD></TR><TR><TD>23.07.2006</TD><TD>ML</TD><TD>Colorado(B. Kim)</TD><TD>Arizona(Juan Cruz)</TD><TD>47</TD><TD>53</TD><TD>2,08</TD><TD>1,87</TD><TD>0,98</TD><TD>0,99</TD><TD>Pinnacle</TD><TD>10Bet</TD></TR><TR><TD>23.07.2006</TD><TD>ML</TD><TD>Houston(R. Oswalt)</TD><TD>NY Mets(Mike Pelfrey)</TD><TD>48</TD><TD>52</TD><TD>1,99</TD><TD>1,96</TD><TD>0,96</TD><TD>1,02</TD><TD>Mansion</TD><TD>Mansion</TD></TR><TR><TD>23.07.2006</TD><TD>ML</TD><TD>Milwaukee(T. Ohka)</TD><TD>Cincinnati(E. Milton)</TD><TD>47</TD><TD>53</TD><TD>2,06</TD><TD>1,9</TD><TD>0,97</TD><TD>1,01</TD><TD>Mansion</TD><TD>Mansion</TD></TR><TR><TD>23.07.2006</TD><TD>ML</TD><TD>Minnesota(Francisco Liriano)</TD><TD>Cleveland(J. Westbrook)</TD><TD>57</TD><TD>43</TD><TD>1,63</TD><TD>2,52</TD><TD>0,93</TD><TH>1,08</TH><TD>Mansion</TD><TD>Pinnacle</TD></TR><TR><TD>23.07.2006</TD><TD>ML</TD><TD>NY Yankees(Sidney Ponson)</TD><TD>Toronto(Shaun Marcum)</TD><TD>48</TD><TD>52</TD><TD>1,93</TD><TD>2,02</TD><TD>0,93</TD><TH>1,05</TH><TD>Mansion</TD><TD>Pinnacle</TD></TR><TR><TD>23.07.2006</TD><TD>ML</TD><TD>Oakland(E. Loaiza)</TD><TD>Detroit(H. Robertson)</TD><TD>39</TD><TD>61</TD><TD>2,47</TD><TD>1,65</TD><TD>0,96</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>Pinnacle</TD><TD>Pinnacle</TD></TR><TR><TD>23.07.2006</TD><TD>ML</TD><TD>Pittsburgh(Tom Gorzelanny)</TD><TD>Florida(D. Willis)</TD><TD>34</TD><TD>66</TD><TD>2,8</TD><TD>1,54</TD><TD>0,95</TD><TD>1,02</TD><TD>5Dimes</TD><TD>Pinnacle</TD></TR><TR><TD>23.07.2006</TD><TD>ML</TD><TD>San Diego(Clay Hensley)</TD><TD>San Francisco(Jamey Wright)</TD><TD>51</TD><TD>49</TD><TD>2,13</TD><TD>1,86</TD><TH>1,09</TH><TD>0,91</TD><TD>Mansion</TD><TD>Mansion</TD></TR><TR><TD>23.07.2006</TD><TD>ML</TD><TD>St. Louis(J. Marquis)</TD><TD>Los Angeles(Chad Billingsley)</TD><TD>55</TD><TD>45</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>1,97</TD><TH>1,1</TH><TD>0,89</TD><TD>Mansion</TD><TD>Mansion</TD></TR><TR><TD>23.07.2006</TD><TD>ML</TD><TD>Texas(V. Padilla)</TD><TD>Chicago Sox(J. Garland)</TD><TD>42</TD><TD>58</TD><TD>2,18</TD><TD>1,8</TD><TD>0,92</TD><TH>1,04</TH><TD>Pinnacle</TD><TD>Mansion</TD></TR></TABLE>

[MarkusM]

Total Strikeouts by E. Loaiza (OAK) Under 3.5 Strikeouts 2.63, 45%Pinnacle
-Loaiza vieraissa
-Detroit strikeouttaa selvästi vähemmän oikeakätisiä vastaan
-Loaiza ei syötä pitkälle peliin, L10 syöttänyt keskimäärin 5,3 ip:ta per startti
-HP tuomarina Adam Dowdy jonka peleissä strikeoutteja -5% liigan keskiarvoon nähden

Total Strikeouts by J. Washburn (SEA) Over 3.5 Strikeouts 2.20 49%, Pinnacle
-Washburn ei ole erikoinen strikeout-syöttäjä mutta tässä pelissä kaikki splitit tukevat normaalia suurempaa määrää
-Boston strikeouttaa hurjasti liigan keskiarvoa enemmän vasureita vastaan
-Washburn kotona
-Päiväpeli, Washburnilla optimaalinen viiden päivä lepo edellisestä startista sekä kohtalainen historia Bostonin lyöjiä vastaan.

[MarkusM]

Total Strikeouts by T. Gorzelanny (PIT) Under 4.5 Strikeouts 1.654, 66% Pinnacle
Total Strikeouts by T. Armas (WAS) Over 3.5 Strikeouts 1.990, 59%, Pinnacle

[odds]

<table border="1">
<tr><th>Date</th><th>Home team</th><th>Away team</th><th>prob 1</th><th>prob 2</th><th>odds 1</th><th>odds 2</th><th>value 1</th><th>value 2</th><th>stake</th><th>win</th></tr><tr><td>19:45 23.7.2006</td><td>Detroit Tigers (N.Robertson)</td><td><B>Oakland Athletics (E.Loaiza)</B></td><td>53.26</td><td><B>46.74</B></td><td>1.65</td><td><B>2.47</B></td><td></td><td>1.15</td><td>3.50%</td><td>8.65</td></tr>
<tr><td>19:45 23.7.2006</td><td><B>Cleveland Indians (J.Westbrook)</B></td><td>Minnesota Twins (F.Liriano)</td><td><B>51.86</B></td><td>48.14</td><td><B>2.38</B></td><td>1.68</td><td>1.23</td><td></td><td>5.66%</td><td>13.46</td></tr>
<tr><td>19:45 23.7.2006</td><td><B>Toronto Blue Jays (S.Marcum)</B></td><td>New York Yankees (S.Ponson)</td><td><B>55.07</B></td><td>44.93</td><td><B>2.04</B></td><td>1.89</td><td>1.12</td><td></td><td>3.96%</td><td>8.07</td></tr>
<tr><td>19:45 23.7.2006</td><td><B>Tampa Bay Devil Rays (S.Kazmir)</B></td><td>Baltimore Orioles (E.Bedard)</td><td><B>71.43</B></td><td>28.57</td><td><B>1.89</B></td><td>2.04</td><td>1.35</td><td></td><td>13.14%</td><td>24.87</td></tr>
<tr><td>19:45 23.7.2006</td><td>Chicago White Sox (J.Garland)</td><td><B>Texas Rangers (V.Padilla)</B></td><td>50.82</td><td><B>49.18</B></td><td>1.79</td><td><B>2.18</B></td><td></td><td>1.07</td><td>2.04%</td><td>4.44</td></tr>
<tr><td>19:45 23.7.2006</td><td><B>Kansas City Royals (B.Duckworth)</B></td><td>Los Angeles Angels (J.Weaver)</td><td><B>46.22</B></td><td>53.78</td><td><B>2.74</B></td><td>1.55</td><td>1.27</td><td></td><td>5.10%</td><td>13.99</td></tr>
<tr><td>19:45 23.7.2006</td><td>Florida Marlins (D.Willis)</td><td><B>Pittsburgh Pirates (T.Gorzelanny)</B></td><td>57.43</td><td><B>42.57</B></td><td>1.50</td><td><B>2.85</B></td><td></td><td>1.21</td><td>3.84%</td><td>10.95</td></tr>
<tr><td>19:45 23.7.2006</td><td>Washington Nationals (T.ArmasJr)</td><td><B>Chicago Cubs (C.Marmol)</B></td><td>46.85</td><td><B>53.15</B></td><td>1.86</td><td><B>2.08</B></td><td></td><td>1.11</td><td>3.26%</td><td>6.78</td></tr>
<tr><td>19:45 23.7.2006</td><td><B>New York Mets (M.Pelfrey)</B></td><td>Houston Astros (R.Oswalt)</td><td><B>64.57</B></td><td>35.43</td><td><B>1.93</B></td><td>2.00</td><td>1.24</td><td></td><td>8.77%</td><td>16.88</td></tr>
<tr><td>19:45 23.7.2006</td><td>Cincinnati Reds (E.Milton)</td><td><B>Milwaukee Brewers (T.Ohka)</B></td><td>48.73</td><td><B>51.27</B></td><td>1.83</td><td><B>2.12</B></td><td></td><td>1.09</td><td>2.59%</td><td>5.49</td></tr>
<tr><td>19:45 23.7.2006</td><td><B>Los Angeles Dodgers (C.Billingsley)</B></td><td>St. Louis Cardinals (J.Marquis)</td><td><B>54.08</B></td><td>45.92</td><td><B>1.98</B></td><td>1.94</td><td>1.07</td><td></td><td>2.41%</td><td>4.78</td></tr>
<tr><td>19:45 23.7.2006</td><td><B>Arizona Diamondbacks (J.Cruz)</B></td><td>Colorado Rockies (B.Kim)</td><td><B>61.73</B></td><td>38.27</td><td><B>1.83</B></td><td>2.12</td><td>1.13</td><td></td><td>5.27%</td><td>9.66</td></tr>
<tr><td>19:45 23.7.2006</td><td><B>Philadelphia Phillies (B.Myers)</B></td><td>Atlanta Braves (H.Ramirez)</td><td><B>68.95</B></td><td>31.05</td><td><B>1.87</B></td><td>2.07</td><td>1.29</td><td></td><td>11.08%</td><td>20.72</td></tr>
</table>
<B>Kokonaispanos 70.6205</B>

<table border="1">
<tr><th>Date</th><th>Home team</th><th>Away team</th><th>total</th><th>prob over</th><th>prob under</th><th>runs av.</th></tr><tr><td>19:45 23.7.2006</td><td>Detroit Tigers (N.Robertson)</td><td>Oakland Athletics (E.Loaiza)</td><td>9.5</td><td></td><td>51.23</td><td>9.52967</td></tr>
<tr><td>19:45 23.7.2006</td><td>Cleveland Indians (J.Westbrook)</td><td>Minnesota Twins (F.Liriano)</td><td>8.0</td><td><B>61.78</B></td><td></td><td>9.3125</td></tr>
<tr><td>19:45 23.7.2006</td><td>Toronto Blue Jays (S.Marcum)</td><td>New York Yankees (S.Ponson)</td><td>10.5</td><td></td><td><B>64.46</B></td><td>9.39932</td></tr>
<tr><td>19:45 23.7.2006</td><td>Tampa Bay Devil Rays (S.Kazmir)</td><td>Baltimore Orioles (E.Bedard)</td><td>8.0</td><td><B>61.54</B></td><td></td><td>10.1095</td></tr>
<tr><td>19:45 23.7.2006</td><td>Chicago White Sox (J.Garland)</td><td>Texas Rangers (V.Padilla)</td><td>10.5</td><td></td><td><B>61.84</B></td><td>9.60358</td></tr>
<tr><td>19:45 23.7.2006</td><td>Kansas City Royals (B.Duckworth)</td><td>Los Angeles Angels (J.Weaver)</td><td>9.5</td><td></td><td><B>55.83</B></td><td>9.36053</td></tr>
<tr><td>19:45 23.7.2006</td><td>Seattle Mariners (J.Washburn)</td><td>Boston Red Sox (J.Lester)</td><td>9.0</td><td></td><td>51.20</td><td>9.04227</td></tr>
<tr><td>19:45 23.7.2006</td><td>Florida Marlins (D.Willis)</td><td>Pittsburgh Pirates (T.Gorzelanny)</td><td>8.5</td><td>53.09</td><td></td><td>9.51517</td></tr>
<tr><td>19:45 23.7.2006</td><td>Washington Nationals (T.ArmasJr)</td><td>Chicago Cubs (C.Marmol)</td><td>9.0</td><td></td><td>52.83</td><td>8.70704</td></tr>
<tr><td>19:45 23.7.2006</td><td>New York Mets (M.Pelfrey)</td><td>Houston Astros (R.Oswalt)</td><td>8.5</td><td>52.67</td><td></td><td>9.22388</td></tr>
<tr><td>19:45 23.7.2006</td><td>Cincinnati Reds (E.Milton)</td><td>Milwaukee Brewers (T.Ohka)</td><td>10.5</td><td></td><td>50.81</td><td>11.4074</td></tr>
<tr><td>19:45 23.7.2006</td><td>San Francisco Giants (J.Wright)</td><td>San Diego Padres (C.Hensley)</td><td>9.5</td><td></td><td>51.55</td><td>9.4489</td></tr>
<tr><td>19:45 23.7.2006</td><td>Los Angeles Dodgers (C.Billingsley)</td><td>St. Louis Cardinals (J.Marquis)</td><td>9.0</td><td></td><td>54.69</td><td>9.12703</td></tr>
<tr><td>19:45 23.7.2006</td><td>Arizona Diamondbacks (J.Cruz)</td><td>Colorado Rockies (B.Kim)</td><td>10.0</td><td></td><td><B>57.04</B></td><td>10.2835</td></tr>
<tr><td>19:45 23.7.2006</td><td>Philadelphia Phillies (B.Myers)</td><td>Atlanta Braves (H.Ramirez)</td><td>9.5</td><td><B>56.52</B></td><td></td><td>10.7066</td></tr>
</table>

Total runs 144.777 (in 15 games)

[römperi]

Total Strikeouts by T. Armas (WAS) Over 3.5 Strikeouts 1.990, 59%, Pinnacle

Saisko tähän jotain perusteluja?kerroin nyt yli 2,3

[MarkusM]

Saisko tähän jotain perusteluja?kerroin nyt yli 2,3

Pikkasen myöhässä tulee kun ottelu alkaa just mutta:
-Arman vetänyt 10/15 startissa tällä kaudella tuon rajan yli
-Toki vasta yksi startti dl:än jälkeen mutta en usko tuon paljoa rajoittavan Armasin syöttämistä
-Cubs strikeoutannut viimeaikoina liigan keskivertoa enemmän(lue: Nevin pitää yhä lyömisestä)
-Stadioni sekä kotietu tukee keskivertoa suurempaa strikeout määrää
-Tuomari hieman -3% strikeout vastainen
-Armasin kautta ennen arvioitu perustaso 6,3 SO9 ja tosiaan tällä kaudella vetänyt hieman paremmin kun edellisessä kymmenessä startissa 6,7 SO9

Kuten monesti sanottu niin pinnyn kerroinmuutokset ovat näissä todella todella agreja. Esim tänään Miltonin o 3,5 laski tunnissa 2,37 -> 1,49. Muutokset eivät mielestäni myöskään vie aina oikeaan suuntaan vaan heiluntaa saattaa olla puolelta puolelle reilusti.