Ylikerroin.com - Parhaat veikkausvihjeet

<TABLE BORDER="1"><TR><TH>Pvm</TH><TH>Peli</TH><TH>Joukkue1</TH><TH>Joukkue2</TH><TH>Tn1</TH><TH>Tn2</TH><TH>Kerroin1</TH><TH>Kerroin2</TH><TH>OA1</TH><TH>OA2</TH><TH>-</TH><TH>-</TH></TR><TR><TD>09.08.2006</TD><TD>ML</TD><TD>Anaheim(J. Lackey)</TD><TD>Cleveland(J. Westbrook)</TD><TD>54</TD><TD>46</TD><TD>1,85</TD><TD>2,1</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0,97</TD><TD>10Bet</TD><TD>Pinnacle</TD></TR><TR><TD>09.08.2006</TD><TD>ML</TD><TD>Baltimore(E. Bedard)</TD><TD>Toronto(R. Halladay)</TD><TD>42</TD><TD>58</TD><TD>2,53</TD><TD>1,62</TD><TH>1,06</TH><TD>0,94</TD><TD>Pinnacle</TD><TD>Pinnacle</TD></TR><TR><TD>09.08.2006</TD><TD>ML</TD><TD>Boston(J. Beckett)</TD><TD>Kansas City(Jorge de la Rosa)</TD><TD>67</TD><TD>33</TD><TD>1,48</TD><TD>2,9</TD><TD>0,99</TD><TD>0,96</TD><TD>Pinnacle</TD><TD>Pinnacle</TD></TR><TR><TD>09.08.2006</TD><TD>ML</TD><TD>Chicago Cubs(C. Zambrano)</TD><TD>Milwaukee(D. Bush)</TD><TD>55</TD><TD>45</TD><TD>1,92</TD><TD>2,01</TD><TH>1,05</TH><TD>0,9</TD><TD>Pinnacle</TD><TD>Pinnacle</TD></TR><TR><TD>09.08.2006</TD><TD>ML</TD><TD>Colorado(J. Francis)</TD><TD>Los Angeles(D. Lowe)</TD><TD>40</TD><TD>60</TD><TD>2,2</TD><TD>1,78</TD><TD>0,88</TD><TH>1,07</TH><TD>Pinnacle</TD><TD>Pinnacle</TD></TR><TR><TD>09.08.2006</TD><TD>ML</TD><TD>Florida(D. Willis)</TD><TD>Washington(Ra. Ortiz)</TD><TD>52</TD><TD>48</TD><TD>1,81</TD><TD>2,16</TD><TD>0,94</TD><TH>1,04</TH><TD>Pinnacle</TD><TD>Pinnacle</TD></TR><TR><TD>09.08.2006</TD><TD>ML</TD><TD>Minnesota(J. Santana)</TD><TD>Detroit(J. Bonderman)</TD><TD>55</TD><TD>45</TD><TD>1,84</TD><TD>2,11</TD><TD>1,01</TD><TD>0,95</TD><TD>Pinnacle</TD><TD>Pinnacle</TD></TR><TR><TD>09.08.2006</TD><TD>ML</TD><TD>NY Yankees(R. Johnson)</TD><TD>Chicago Sox(J. Garland)</TD><TD>51</TD><TD>49</TD><TD>1,94</TD><TD>1,98</TD><TD>0,99</TD><TD>0,97</TD><TD>Pinnacle</TD><TD>Pinnacle</TD></TR><TR><TD>09.08.2006</TD><TD>ML</TD><TD>Philadelphia(Randy Wolf)</TD><TD>Atlanta(Chuck James)</TD><TD>50</TD><TD>50</TD><TD>2,01</TD><TD>1,92</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0,96</TD><TD>Pinnacle</TD><TD>Pinnacle</TD></TR><TR><TD>09.08.2006</TD><TD>ML</TD><TD>Pittsburgh(S. Chacon)</TD><TD>Houston(R. Oswalt)</TD><TD>31</TD><TD>69</TD><TD>2,93</TD><TD>1,47</TD><TD>0,91</TD><TD>1,02</TD><TD>Pinnacle</TD><TD>Pinnacle</TD></TR><TR><TD>09.08.2006</TD><TD>ML</TD><TD>San Diego(Clay Hensley)</TD><TD>NY Mets(P. Martinez)</TD><TD>35</TD><TD>65</TD><TD>2,95</TD><TD>1,47</TD><TH>1,03</TH><TD>0,96</TD><TD>Pinnacle</TD><TD>Pinnacle</TD></TR><TR><TD>09.08.2006</TD><TD>ML</TD><TD>San Francisco(M. Morris)</TD><TD>Arizona(M. Batista)</TD><TD>47</TD><TD>53</TD><TD>2,06</TD><TD>1,88</TD><TD>0,97</TD><TD>0,99</TD><TD>Pinnacle</TD><TD>Pinnacle</TD></TR><TR><TD>09.08.2006</TD><TD>ML</TD><TD>St. Louis(C. Carpenter)</TD><TD>Cincinnati(A. Harang)</TD><TD>54</TD><TD>46</TD><TD>1,79</TD><TD>2,19</TD><TD>0,97</TD><TD>1,01</TD><TD>Pinnacle</TD><TD>Pinnacle</TD></TR><TR><TD>09.08.2006</TD><TD>ML</TD><TD>Tampa Bay(Jamie Shields)</TD><TD>Seattle(J. Washburn)</TD><TD>40</TD><TD>60</TD><TD>2,61</TD><TD>1,59</TD><TH>1,04</TH><TD>0,96</TD><TD>Pinnacle</TD><TD>Pinnacle</TD></TR><TR><TD>09.08.2006</TD><TD>ML</TD><TD>Texas(V. Padilla)</TD><TD>Oakland(B. Zito)</TD><TD>49</TD><TD>51</TD><TD>2,21</TD><TD>1,78</TD><TH>1,08</TH><TD>0,91</TD><TD>Pinnacle</TD><TD>Pinnacle</TD></TR></TABLE>

<table border="1\"><tr><th>Date</th><th>Home team</th><th>Away team</th><th>prob 1</th><th>prob 2</th><th>odds 1</th><th>odds 2</th><th>value 1</th><th>value 2</th><th>stake</th><th>win</th></tr><tr><td>14:53 9.8.2006</td><td>Seattle Mariners (J.Washburn)</td><td><B>Tampa Bay Devil Rays (J.Shields)</B></td><td>56.45</td><td><B>43.55</B></td><td>1.61</td><td><B>2.57</B></td><td></td><td>1.12</td><td>2.53%</td><td>6.51</td></tr><tr><td>14:53 9.8.2006</td><td>Cleveland Indians (J.Westbrook)</td><td><B>Los Angeles Angels (J.Lackey)</B></td><td>37.74</td><td><B>62.26</B></td><td>2.09</td><td><B>1.85</B></td><td></td><td>1.15</td><td>6.03%</td><td>11.19</td></tr><tr><td>14:53 9.8.2006</td><td><B>Chicago White Sox (J.Garland)</B></td><td>New York Yankees (R.Johnson)</td><td><B>55.17</B></td><td>44.83</td><td><B>2.10</B></td><td>1.85</td><td>1.16</td><td></td><td>4.80%</td><td>10.08</td></tr><tr><td>14:53 9.8.2006</td><td><B>Kansas City Royals (M.Redman)</B></td><td>Boston Red Sox (J.Beckett)</td><td><B>59.21</B></td><td>40.79</td><td><B>2.86</B></td><td>1.50</td><td>1.69</td><td></td><td>12.42%</td><td>35.53</td></tr><tr><td>14:53 9.8.2006</td><td><B>Washington Nationals (R.Ortiz)</B></td><td>Florida Marlins (D.Willis)</td><td><B>52.45</B></td><td>47.55</td><td><B>2.12</B></td><td>1.83</td><td>1.11</td><td></td><td>3.33%</td><td>7.06</td></tr><tr><td>14:53 9.8.2006</td><td>New York Mets (P.Martinez)</td><td><B>San Diego Padres (C.Hensley)</B></td><td>57.41</td><td><B>42.59</B></td><td>1.48</td><td><B>2.90</B></td><td></td><td>1.24</td><td>4.13%</td><td>11.96</td></tr><tr><td>14:53 9.8.2006</td><td><B>Milwaukee Brewers (D.Bush)</B></td><td>Chicago Cubs (C.Zambrano)</td><td><B>54.60</B></td><td>45.40</td><td><B>2.05</B></td><td>1.88</td><td>1.12</td><td></td><td>3.79%</td><td>7.76</td></tr><tr><td>14:53 9.8.2006</td><td>Houston Astros (R.Oswalt)</td><td><B>Pittsburgh Pirates (S.Chacon)</B></td><td>56.36</td><td><B>43.64</B></td><td>1.49</td><td><B>2.88</B></td><td></td><td>1.26</td><td>4.55%</td><td>13.11</td></tr><tr><td>14:53 9.8.2006</td><td><B>Los Angeles Dodgers (D.Lowe)</B></td><td>Colorado Rockies (J.Francis)</td><td><B>63.54</B></td><td>36.46</td><td><B>1.75</B></td><td>2.26</td><td>1.11</td><td></td><td>4.90%</td><td>8.55</td></tr></table><B>Kokonaispanos 46.4835</B><table border="1\"><tr><th>Date</th><th>Home team</th><th>Away team</th><th>total</th><th>prob over</th><th>prob under</th><th>runs av.</th></tr><tr><td>14:53 9.8.2006</td><td>Toronto Blue Jays (R.Halladay)</td><td>Baltimore Orioles (E.Bedard)</td><td>9.0</td><td></td><td><B>58.33</B></td><td>8.76694</td></tr><tr><td>14:53 9.8.2006</td><td>Oakland Athletics (B.Zito)</td><td>Texas Rangers (V.Padilla)</td><td>9.0</td><td>52.85</td><td></td><td>9.49572</td></tr><tr><td>14:53 9.8.2006</td><td>Seattle Mariners (J.Washburn)</td><td>Tampa Bay Devil Rays (J.Shields)</td><td>9.5</td><td></td><td><B>58.95</B></td><td>8.99327</td></tr><tr><td>14:53 9.8.2006</td><td>Cleveland Indians (J.Westbrook)</td><td>Los Angeles Angels (J.Lackey)</td><td>9.0</td><td></td><td>53.35</td><td>9.20523</td></tr><tr><td>14:53 9.8.2006</td><td>Detroit Tigers (J.Bonderman)</td><td>Minnesota Twins (J.Santana)</td><td>7.5</td><td><B>56.65</B></td><td></td><td>8.71939</td></tr><tr><td>14:53 9.8.2006</td><td>Chicago White Sox (J.Garland)</td><td>New York Yankees (R.Johnson)</td><td>10.0</td><td>53.85</td><td></td><td>10.5877</td></tr><tr><td>14:53 9.8.2006</td><td>Kansas City Royals (M.Redman)</td><td>Boston Red Sox (J.Beckett)</td><td>10.0</td><td>50.56</td><td></td><td>10.7237</td></tr><tr><td>14:53 9.8.2006</td><td>Atlanta Braves (C.James)</td><td>Philadelphia Phillies (R.Wolf)</td><td>10.0</td><td></td><td><B>57.41</B></td><td>9.52201</td></tr><tr><td>14:53 9.8.2006</td><td>Washington Nationals (R.Ortiz)</td><td>Florida Marlins (D.Willis)</td><td>8.5</td><td><B>60.61</B></td><td></td><td>10.3193</td></tr><tr><td>14:53 9.8.2006</td><td>Cincinnati Reds (A.Harang)</td><td>St. Louis Cardinals (C.Carpenter)</td><td>9.0</td><td><B>59.60</B></td><td></td><td>10.5849</td></tr><tr><td>14:53 9.8.2006</td><td>New York Mets (P.Martinez)</td><td>San Diego Padres (C.Hensley)</td><td>8.0</td><td>54.31</td><td></td><td>8.65366</td></tr><tr><td>14:53 9.8.2006</td><td>Milwaukee Brewers (D.Bush)</td><td>Chicago Cubs (C.Zambrano)</td><td>8.5</td><td></td><td><B>60.00</B></td><td>7.86395</td></tr><tr><td>14:53 9.8.2006</td><td>Houston Astros (R.Oswalt)</td><td>Pittsburgh Pirates (S.Chacon)</td><td>9.0</td><td></td><td>54.55</td><td>8.9669</td></tr><tr><td>14:53 9.8.2006</td><td>Arizona Diamondbacks (M.Batista)</td><td>San Francisco Giants (M.Morris)</td><td>9.5</td><td><B>58.65</B></td><td></td><td>10.6801</td></tr><tr><td>14:53 9.8.2006</td><td>Los Angeles Dodgers (D.Lowe)</td><td>Colorado Rockies (J.Francis)</td><td>8.5</td><td><B>60.22</B></td><td></td><td>10.2009</td></tr></table>Total runs 143.284 (in 15 games)

Pelit tänään ilman sen kummempia selityksiä ja olen MarkusM:n kanssa aika pitkälti samoilla linjoilla (lukuunottamatta Oakland-Texas peliä johon itse alustavasti sain Oaklandin pelattavaksi, mutta sen verran suuret ovat näkemyserot, että jätän koko ottelun väliin)

Milwaukee Brewers - Chicago Cubs
Bush (7-8 4.74 ERA) - Zambrano (12-4 3.42 ERA)

Peleihin Cubseja ML (1.92 BetandGame) sekä RL (2.48 Pinnacle)

Pakko ottaa myös peleihin viime aikojen todellinen rahakone Dodgers joka nousi eilen upeasti kahden juoksun voittoon. Toivottavasti kaverit jatkavat streaking 12:sta sweeppaamalla Coloradon.

La Dodgers - Colorado Rockies
Francis (9-9 3.55 ERA) - Lowe (9-7 4.15 ERA)

Eli siis Dodgersseja ML (1.76 BetandGame) sekä RL (2.72 Betsson)

(lukuunottamatta Oakland-Texas peliä johon itse alustavasti sain Oaklandin pelattavaksi, mutta sen verran suuret ovat näkemyserot, että jätän koko ottelun väliin)

Kun kerrankin tulee mielipide-eroja esille näissä niin pari pointtia miten päädyin tuohon arvioon:
-Texasin lyöntipeli hieman paremmassa kunnossa
-Texasin lyöntipeli selvästi parempi vasenkätisiä vastaan, Oakland toki myös suhteessa parempi oikeakätisiä vastaan
-Padilla syöttänyt hyvin, esimerkiksi 10 edellisessä pelissä vain yksi huono startti
-Zito ollut keskinkertainen
-Molempien syöttäjien aikaisemmat kohtaamisen näitä joukkueita vastaan tulevat Texasia, Padilla 2 starttia A'sia vastaan 3,86 era ja Zito 2 starttia Texasia vastaan 5,4 era. Tälle tilastolle annan tosin kokonaisuudessa vähän painoarvoa
-Oaklandilla Crosby varmasti poissa ja Kotsay todennäköisesti, Texas täysin ehjä


Kokonaisuutena ottelun luvut jotain tähän suuntaan:
<TABLE BORDER="1"><TR> <TH>Team</TH> <TH>Batting</TH> <TH>Spitcher</TD> <TH>Bullpen</TH> <TH>RA</TH></TR><TR> <TD>Texas</TD> <TD>4.97</TD> <TD>4.34</TD> <TD>4.47</TD> <TD>4.85</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Oakland</TD> <TD>5.13</TD> <TD>4.58</TD> <TD>3.63</TD> <TD>5.09</TD></TR></TABLE>

Hyvät perustelut ja itse säästin pennoseni. Zito tosiaankin oli aika keskinkertainen ja antoikin 11 hittiä viidessä ennenkun Halsey tuli "hoitelemaan" loput. Onneksi en pelannut (11-0 top 6th tätä kirjoittaessa)