NFL 2010-2011
Lähetetty:
Jaahas, aika hiljaista täällä jenkkifoorumilla nykyään... Kauden alkuun aikaa viikko, joten laitetaas alkuun viime vuonna lanseerattuun tapaan analyysiä menneen kauden voitoista ja fumbletuureista. Taulukossa (johon tuli paljon desimaaleja vahingossa, sorry) näkyvillä viime kauden voitot, pythagorean voitot sekä fumblekorjatut pythagorean voitot (lisälöpinää noista viime kauden esikausitopikissa).
Järjestys on siis ikäänkuin viime kauden fumbletuureilla korjattu paremmuusjärjestys (pythagorean menetelmällä laskettuna). Puhtaasti tämän palikka-analyysin perusteella viime kaudella "liikaa voittoja" ottivat Indianapolis ja San Diego (yli 2 voittoa enemmän kuin odotettu). "Liian vähän" voittoja ottivat puolestaan tällä logiikalla Washington ja Baltimore. En nyt suoranaisesti tuon perusteella ala omaa rankingiani rakentamaan, mutta laitetaan varsin näytille, kun tämmöistä tuli viime kaudellakin räplättyä...
Koitan laitella jotain juttua joukkueista (en ehdi samanlaista kuin viime kaudella, mutta lyhyesti jos ehtis ideajengeistä satuilla) ennen kauden alkua. Alkaakos muilla olemaan rankingit kohdillaan? Olisi kiva kuulla muiden näkemyksiä erityisesti mahdollisesti yli- tai aliarvostetuista joukkueista...
<TABLE BORDER=2><TR> <TD>Jengi</TD> <TD>Voitot 2009</TD> <TD>PF</TD> <TD>PA</TD> <TD>"Pythagorean wins"</TD> <TD>Fumblet</TD> <TD>Fumblepinnat</TD> <TD>Fumble-korjatut Pythat</TD> <TD>Pina 2010 line</TD> <TD>Ero (voitot - fumblekorjatut pyth)</TD></TR><TR> <TD>New Orleans</TD> <TD>13</TD> <TD>510</TD> <TD>341</TD> <TD>11.5506765136805</TD> <TD>-3</TD> <TD>523.95</TD> <TD>11.7531621875235</TD> <TD>10.5</TD> <TD>1.24683781247653</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Green Bay</TD> <TD>11</TD> <TD>461</TD> <TD>297</TD> <TD>11.8277968378749</TD> <TD>2</TD> <TD>451.7</TD> <TD>11.6771153978769</TD> <TD>9.5</TD> <TD>-0.677115397876923</TD></TR><TR> <TD>New England</TD> <TD>10</TD> <TD>427</TD> <TD>285</TD> <TD>11.5641122115241</TD> <TD>1</TD> <TD>422.35</TD> <TD>11.4804334767065</TD> <TD>9.5</TD> <TD>-1.48043347670649</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Baltimore</TD> <TD>9</TD> <TD>391</TD> <TD>261</TD> <TD>11.5632939688132</TD> <TD>1</TD> <TD>386.35</TD> <TD>11.4718060060252</TD> <TD>10</TD> <TD>-2.4718060060252</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Minnesota</TD> <TD>12</TD> <TD>470</TD> <TD>312</TD> <TD>11.6052882391106</TD> <TD>2</TD> <TD>460.7</TD> <TD>11.4527037287338</TD> <TD>9.5</TD> <TD>0.547296271266219</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Dallas</TD> <TD>11</TD> <TD>361</TD> <TD>250</TD> <TD>11.2785222095878</TD> <TD>0</TD> <TD>361</TD> <TD>11.2785222095878</TD> <TD>10</TD> <TD>-0.278522209587834</TD></TR><TR> <TD>NY Jets</TD> <TD>9</TD> <TD>348</TD> <TD>236</TD> <TD>11.4421031120089</TD> <TD>5</TD> <TD>324.75</TD> <TD>10.8897043416988</TD> <TD>9.5</TD> <TD>-1.88970434169878</TD></TR><TR> <TD>San Diego</TD> <TD>13</TD> <TD>454</TD> <TD>320</TD> <TD>11.1381922071875</TD> <TD>4</TD> <TD>435.4</TD> <TD>10.7962791808551</TD> <TD>11</TD> <TD>2.20372081914491</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Arizona</TD> <TD>10</TD> <TD>375</TD> <TD>325</TD> <TD>9.34374063876762</TD> <TD>-10</TD> <TD>421.5</TD> <TD>10.3896142184895</TD> <TD>7.5</TD> <TD>-0.389614218489518</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Indianapolis</TD> <TD>14</TD> <TD>416</TD> <TD>307</TD> <TD>10.7620466473872</TD> <TD>5</TD> <TD>392.75</TD> <TD>10.271029826791</TD> <TD>11</TD> <TD>3.72897017320898</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Philadelphia</TD> <TD>11</TD> <TD>429</TD> <TD>337</TD> <TD>10.2278005173019</TD> <TD>3</TD> <TD>415.05</TD> <TD>9.93567688123432</TD> <TD>8</TD> <TD>1.06432311876568</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Pittsburgh</TD> <TD>9</TD> <TD>368</TD> <TD>324</TD> <TD>9.19809794695887</TD> <TD>-1</TD> <TD>372.65</TD> <TD>9.3141983436846</TD> <TD>9</TD> <TD>-0.3141983436846</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Cincinnati</TD> <TD>10</TD> <TD>305</TD> <TD>291</TD> <TD>8.44499127838141</TD> <TD>-6</TD> <TD>332.9</TD> <TD>9.26454638684819</TD> <TD>8</TD> <TD>0.735453613151808</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Houston</TD> <TD>9</TD> <TD>388</TD> <TD>333</TD> <TD>9.43349510644305</TD> <TD>2</TD> <TD>378.7</TD> <TD>9.20979466170102</TD> <TD>8</TD> <TD>-0.209794661701023</TD></TR><TR> <TD>San Francisco</TD> <TD>8</TD> <TD>330</TD> <TD>281</TD> <TD>9.5056316121177</TD> <TD>5</TD> <TD>306.75</TD> <TD>8.8282133260047</TD> <TD>8.5</TD> <TD>-0.828213326004704</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Atlanta</TD> <TD>9</TD> <TD>363</TD> <TD>325</TD> <TD>9.04231741222626</TD> <TD>5</TD> <TD>339.75</TD> <TD>8.42038100584252</TD> <TD>9</TD> <TD>0.579618994157483</TD></TR><TR> <TD>NY Giants</TD> <TD>8</TD> <TD>402</TD> <TD>427</TD> <TD>7.42902582943626</TD> <TD>-6</TD> <TD>429.9</TD> <TD>8.06416504941696</TD> <TD>8.5</TD> <TD>-0.0641650494169639</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Tennessee</TD> <TD>8</TD> <TD>354</TD> <TD>402</TD> <TD>6.80360959400054</TD> <TD>-9</TD> <TD>395.85</TD> <TD>7.85386559032964</TD> <TD>8</TD> <TD>0.146134409670356</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Miami</TD> <TD>7</TD> <TD>360</TD> <TD>390</TD> <TD>7.24346253622206</TD> <TD>-4</TD> <TD>378.6</TD> <TD>7.71887737657353</TD> <TD>8.5</TD> <TD>-0.718877376573532</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Denver</TD> <TD>8</TD> <TD>326</TD> <TD>324</TD> <TD>8.05833761155458</TD> <TD>3</TD> <TD>312.05</TD> <TD>7.64397611642925</TD> <TD>7.5</TD> <TD>0.356023883570747</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Carolina</TD> <TD>8</TD> <TD>315</TD> <TD>308</TD> <TD>8.2129923262682</TD> <TD>4</TD> <TD>296.4</TD> <TD>7.63631469757319</TD> <TD>7</TD> <TD>0.363685302426815</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Buffalo</TD> <TD>6</TD> <TD>258</TD> <TD>326</TD> <TD>5.83738607805408</TD> <TD>-6</TD> <TD>285.9</TD> <TD>6.76563777239818</TD> <TD>5</TD> <TD>-0.765637772398178</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Washington</TD> <TD>4</TD> <TD>266</TD> <TD>336</TD> <TD>5.84022416722965</TD> <TD>-6</TD> <TD>293.9</TD> <TD>6.74143733543781</TD> <TD>8</TD> <TD>-2.74143733543781</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Jacksonville</TD> <TD>7</TD> <TD>290</TD> <TD>380</TD> <TD>5.52181783794754</TD> <TD>-3</TD> <TD>303.95</TD> <TD>5.93110642295392</TD> <TD>7</TD> <TD>1.06889357704608</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Chicago</TD> <TD>7</TD> <TD>327</TD> <TD>375</TD> <TD>6.71284628959206</TD> <TD>8</TD> <TD>289.8</TD> <TD>5.62991110975642</TD> <TD>8</TD> <TD>1.37008889024358</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Seattle</TD> <TD>5</TD> <TD>280</TD> <TD>390</TD> <TD>5.01080336279201</TD> <TD>-2</TD> <TD>289.3</TD> <TD>5.28108775776358</TD> <TD>7.5</TD> <TD>-0.28108775776358</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Cleveland</TD> <TD>5</TD> <TD>245</TD> <TD>375</TD> <TD>4.27533361538662</TD> <TD>-4</TD> <TD>263.6</TD> <TD>4.84004151321885</TD> <TD>5.5</TD> <TD>0.159958486781151</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Kansas City</TD> <TD>4</TD> <TD>294</TD> <TD>424</TD> <TD>4.73144903320542</TD> <TD>3</TD> <TD>280.05</TD> <TD>4.35677058718673</TD> <TD>6.5</TD> <TD>-0.35677058718673</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Oakland</TD> <TD>5</TD> <TD>197</TD> <TD>379</TD> <TD>2.79960603626561</TD> <TD>-3</TD> <TD>210.95</TD> <TD>3.1940538218954</TD> <TD>6</TD> <TD>1.8059461781046</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Tampa Bay</TD> <TD>3</TD> <TD>244</TD> <TD>400</TD> <TD>3.78539454756464</TD> <TD>5</TD> <TD>220.75</TD> <TD>3.14275443138099</TD> <TD>6</TD> <TD>-0.142754431380991</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Detroit</TD> <TD>2</TD> <TD>262</TD> <TD>494</TD> <TD>2.9115782823439</TD> <TD>5</TD> <TD>238.75</TD> <TD>2.4232052193428</TD> <TD>5</TD> <TD>-0.423205219342804</TD></TR><TR> <TD>St. Louis</TD> <TD>1</TD> <TD>175</TD> <TD>436</TD> <TD>1.6492680587356</TD> <TD>0</TD> <TD>175</TD> <TD>1.6492680587356</TD> <TD>5</TD> <TD>-0.649268058735597</TD></TR></TABLE>
Järjestys on siis ikäänkuin viime kauden fumbletuureilla korjattu paremmuusjärjestys (pythagorean menetelmällä laskettuna). Puhtaasti tämän palikka-analyysin perusteella viime kaudella "liikaa voittoja" ottivat Indianapolis ja San Diego (yli 2 voittoa enemmän kuin odotettu). "Liian vähän" voittoja ottivat puolestaan tällä logiikalla Washington ja Baltimore. En nyt suoranaisesti tuon perusteella ala omaa rankingiani rakentamaan, mutta laitetaan varsin näytille, kun tämmöistä tuli viime kaudellakin räplättyä...
Koitan laitella jotain juttua joukkueista (en ehdi samanlaista kuin viime kaudella, mutta lyhyesti jos ehtis ideajengeistä satuilla) ennen kauden alkua. Alkaakos muilla olemaan rankingit kohdillaan? Olisi kiva kuulla muiden näkemyksiä erityisesti mahdollisesti yli- tai aliarvostetuista joukkueista...
<TABLE BORDER=2><TR> <TD>Jengi</TD> <TD>Voitot 2009</TD> <TD>PF</TD> <TD>PA</TD> <TD>"Pythagorean wins"</TD> <TD>Fumblet</TD> <TD>Fumblepinnat</TD> <TD>Fumble-korjatut Pythat</TD> <TD>Pina 2010 line</TD> <TD>Ero (voitot - fumblekorjatut pyth)</TD></TR><TR> <TD>New Orleans</TD> <TD>13</TD> <TD>510</TD> <TD>341</TD> <TD>11.5506765136805</TD> <TD>-3</TD> <TD>523.95</TD> <TD>11.7531621875235</TD> <TD>10.5</TD> <TD>1.24683781247653</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Green Bay</TD> <TD>11</TD> <TD>461</TD> <TD>297</TD> <TD>11.8277968378749</TD> <TD>2</TD> <TD>451.7</TD> <TD>11.6771153978769</TD> <TD>9.5</TD> <TD>-0.677115397876923</TD></TR><TR> <TD>New England</TD> <TD>10</TD> <TD>427</TD> <TD>285</TD> <TD>11.5641122115241</TD> <TD>1</TD> <TD>422.35</TD> <TD>11.4804334767065</TD> <TD>9.5</TD> <TD>-1.48043347670649</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Baltimore</TD> <TD>9</TD> <TD>391</TD> <TD>261</TD> <TD>11.5632939688132</TD> <TD>1</TD> <TD>386.35</TD> <TD>11.4718060060252</TD> <TD>10</TD> <TD>-2.4718060060252</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Minnesota</TD> <TD>12</TD> <TD>470</TD> <TD>312</TD> <TD>11.6052882391106</TD> <TD>2</TD> <TD>460.7</TD> <TD>11.4527037287338</TD> <TD>9.5</TD> <TD>0.547296271266219</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Dallas</TD> <TD>11</TD> <TD>361</TD> <TD>250</TD> <TD>11.2785222095878</TD> <TD>0</TD> <TD>361</TD> <TD>11.2785222095878</TD> <TD>10</TD> <TD>-0.278522209587834</TD></TR><TR> <TD>NY Jets</TD> <TD>9</TD> <TD>348</TD> <TD>236</TD> <TD>11.4421031120089</TD> <TD>5</TD> <TD>324.75</TD> <TD>10.8897043416988</TD> <TD>9.5</TD> <TD>-1.88970434169878</TD></TR><TR> <TD>San Diego</TD> <TD>13</TD> <TD>454</TD> <TD>320</TD> <TD>11.1381922071875</TD> <TD>4</TD> <TD>435.4</TD> <TD>10.7962791808551</TD> <TD>11</TD> <TD>2.20372081914491</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Arizona</TD> <TD>10</TD> <TD>375</TD> <TD>325</TD> <TD>9.34374063876762</TD> <TD>-10</TD> <TD>421.5</TD> <TD>10.3896142184895</TD> <TD>7.5</TD> <TD>-0.389614218489518</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Indianapolis</TD> <TD>14</TD> <TD>416</TD> <TD>307</TD> <TD>10.7620466473872</TD> <TD>5</TD> <TD>392.75</TD> <TD>10.271029826791</TD> <TD>11</TD> <TD>3.72897017320898</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Philadelphia</TD> <TD>11</TD> <TD>429</TD> <TD>337</TD> <TD>10.2278005173019</TD> <TD>3</TD> <TD>415.05</TD> <TD>9.93567688123432</TD> <TD>8</TD> <TD>1.06432311876568</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Pittsburgh</TD> <TD>9</TD> <TD>368</TD> <TD>324</TD> <TD>9.19809794695887</TD> <TD>-1</TD> <TD>372.65</TD> <TD>9.3141983436846</TD> <TD>9</TD> <TD>-0.3141983436846</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Cincinnati</TD> <TD>10</TD> <TD>305</TD> <TD>291</TD> <TD>8.44499127838141</TD> <TD>-6</TD> <TD>332.9</TD> <TD>9.26454638684819</TD> <TD>8</TD> <TD>0.735453613151808</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Houston</TD> <TD>9</TD> <TD>388</TD> <TD>333</TD> <TD>9.43349510644305</TD> <TD>2</TD> <TD>378.7</TD> <TD>9.20979466170102</TD> <TD>8</TD> <TD>-0.209794661701023</TD></TR><TR> <TD>San Francisco</TD> <TD>8</TD> <TD>330</TD> <TD>281</TD> <TD>9.5056316121177</TD> <TD>5</TD> <TD>306.75</TD> <TD>8.8282133260047</TD> <TD>8.5</TD> <TD>-0.828213326004704</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Atlanta</TD> <TD>9</TD> <TD>363</TD> <TD>325</TD> <TD>9.04231741222626</TD> <TD>5</TD> <TD>339.75</TD> <TD>8.42038100584252</TD> <TD>9</TD> <TD>0.579618994157483</TD></TR><TR> <TD>NY Giants</TD> <TD>8</TD> <TD>402</TD> <TD>427</TD> <TD>7.42902582943626</TD> <TD>-6</TD> <TD>429.9</TD> <TD>8.06416504941696</TD> <TD>8.5</TD> <TD>-0.0641650494169639</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Tennessee</TD> <TD>8</TD> <TD>354</TD> <TD>402</TD> <TD>6.80360959400054</TD> <TD>-9</TD> <TD>395.85</TD> <TD>7.85386559032964</TD> <TD>8</TD> <TD>0.146134409670356</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Miami</TD> <TD>7</TD> <TD>360</TD> <TD>390</TD> <TD>7.24346253622206</TD> <TD>-4</TD> <TD>378.6</TD> <TD>7.71887737657353</TD> <TD>8.5</TD> <TD>-0.718877376573532</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Denver</TD> <TD>8</TD> <TD>326</TD> <TD>324</TD> <TD>8.05833761155458</TD> <TD>3</TD> <TD>312.05</TD> <TD>7.64397611642925</TD> <TD>7.5</TD> <TD>0.356023883570747</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Carolina</TD> <TD>8</TD> <TD>315</TD> <TD>308</TD> <TD>8.2129923262682</TD> <TD>4</TD> <TD>296.4</TD> <TD>7.63631469757319</TD> <TD>7</TD> <TD>0.363685302426815</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Buffalo</TD> <TD>6</TD> <TD>258</TD> <TD>326</TD> <TD>5.83738607805408</TD> <TD>-6</TD> <TD>285.9</TD> <TD>6.76563777239818</TD> <TD>5</TD> <TD>-0.765637772398178</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Washington</TD> <TD>4</TD> <TD>266</TD> <TD>336</TD> <TD>5.84022416722965</TD> <TD>-6</TD> <TD>293.9</TD> <TD>6.74143733543781</TD> <TD>8</TD> <TD>-2.74143733543781</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Jacksonville</TD> <TD>7</TD> <TD>290</TD> <TD>380</TD> <TD>5.52181783794754</TD> <TD>-3</TD> <TD>303.95</TD> <TD>5.93110642295392</TD> <TD>7</TD> <TD>1.06889357704608</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Chicago</TD> <TD>7</TD> <TD>327</TD> <TD>375</TD> <TD>6.71284628959206</TD> <TD>8</TD> <TD>289.8</TD> <TD>5.62991110975642</TD> <TD>8</TD> <TD>1.37008889024358</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Seattle</TD> <TD>5</TD> <TD>280</TD> <TD>390</TD> <TD>5.01080336279201</TD> <TD>-2</TD> <TD>289.3</TD> <TD>5.28108775776358</TD> <TD>7.5</TD> <TD>-0.28108775776358</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Cleveland</TD> <TD>5</TD> <TD>245</TD> <TD>375</TD> <TD>4.27533361538662</TD> <TD>-4</TD> <TD>263.6</TD> <TD>4.84004151321885</TD> <TD>5.5</TD> <TD>0.159958486781151</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Kansas City</TD> <TD>4</TD> <TD>294</TD> <TD>424</TD> <TD>4.73144903320542</TD> <TD>3</TD> <TD>280.05</TD> <TD>4.35677058718673</TD> <TD>6.5</TD> <TD>-0.35677058718673</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Oakland</TD> <TD>5</TD> <TD>197</TD> <TD>379</TD> <TD>2.79960603626561</TD> <TD>-3</TD> <TD>210.95</TD> <TD>3.1940538218954</TD> <TD>6</TD> <TD>1.8059461781046</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Tampa Bay</TD> <TD>3</TD> <TD>244</TD> <TD>400</TD> <TD>3.78539454756464</TD> <TD>5</TD> <TD>220.75</TD> <TD>3.14275443138099</TD> <TD>6</TD> <TD>-0.142754431380991</TD></TR><TR> <TD>Detroit</TD> <TD>2</TD> <TD>262</TD> <TD>494</TD> <TD>2.9115782823439</TD> <TD>5</TD> <TD>238.75</TD> <TD>2.4232052193428</TD> <TD>5</TD> <TD>-0.423205219342804</TD></TR><TR> <TD>St. Louis</TD> <TD>1</TD> <TD>175</TD> <TD>436</TD> <TD>1.6492680587356</TD> <TD>0</TD> <TD>175</TD> <TD>1.6492680587356</TD> <TD>5</TD> <TD>-0.649268058735597</TD></TR></TABLE>