ATP: Stanislas Wawrinka- Kevin Anderson
We spoke a lot at Roland Garros about how focused Stanislas Wawrinka had been all season about winning the French Open and how he had targeted that above everything else and had even been able to put aside off court issues which have been well documented and have continued, to take the one title he wanted above all others. He has not played a huge amount of tennis since , just four events, seven for his opponent and it must be hard for Wawrinka to not feel that targets for the year have been achieved and in truth, given all the other issues he has had to deal with, he could probably do with a break. Anyway, regardless of that, he will have to be at his best to win today.
Kevin Anderson leads the h2h 4-3, but has all the h2h momentum having won the last four meetings, three of which have been played in the last 12 months, including post RG at Queen's and he also took a set in the two losses before that, so continual improvement in those last six match ups. The last five meetings have produced seven tie breaks, with two other sets going to 12 games and with the South African serving as well as anyone with 25 aces versus Andy Murray in R4 and not being broken in R2 or 3, small margins and tie breaks are likely to again decide this and those are Anderson's forte. He came into this tournament on the back of a confidence boosting win in a lower level event and has got winning momentum with nine staright victories and I favour him to reach double digits this evening.
Wawrinka is a late developer and took a long while to come from out of the very long shadow cast by countryman Roger Federer, but he has a losing record lifetime versus top 20 players on all surfaces and just a 37% win record against top 20 taller players and I will take that trend to continue and Anderson, who is applying for dual US- South African citizenship to post another "upset" win in his "new" nation.
Kevin Anderson to beat Stanislas Wawrinka @ 2.375 + , there is 2.42 with Pinnacle/Sportmarket Pro and 2.46 for low liquidity ( currently) on Betfair.
I wouldn't look at the H2H too much in this match-up. Anderson beat the Swiss at Queens in extremely fast conditions last summer and Wawrinka isn't a good fast court player. He clearly prefers slow hc even though he lost to Anderson in Indian Wells last year.
Wawrinka is a big time player, always plays at his best level when the mental pressure is high. As I wrote in Finnish there are some main points in this match-up;
IN MEDIUM/MEDIUM-FAST COURTS
- Against Murray Anderson was allowed to dominate. Against Wawrinka he has no time to runaround to his forehand because Wawrinka takes the ball relatively early to his backhand. (Won't be able to dominate because Wawrinka doesn't play the percentages like Murray) Anderson when rushed tends to have a bad timing on his forehand wing. (On his backhand in particular but this isn't that relevant in this match-up) Wawrinka tends to hit his forehands cross court to Anderson's backhand. This emphasizes the fact that Anderson's serve has to be on-point today because these 2nd serve returns comes very often to his backhand.
Wawrinka will probably try to hit thru the backhand of Anderson as I said in order to get some short balls to topspin-forehand them away. Anderson's backhand breaks technically down very often like many other big man in the game (Isner, Tsonga, Raonic etc.)