First off, let's start with introduction. My name is Marko Virtanen and I'm a professional sports bettor from Finland. I've been a pro now for about ten years of which the last six I've also ran my own betting service for Finnish customers. From the link in the bottom of this post you can find my track record for the last six years I've ran the service.
In the track you'll probably notice there aren't early bets really at all, which is because I want my customers to get their bets in after Pinnacle has raised their limits to the default maximum so that they can get as much money in as possible. For the duration of those six years, the return on investment has roughly been 5%. This equates to winning 66 units per year on average with an average bet of 1.9 units. Last season was the best season thus far in my career, which saw the winnings reach to 94.7 units with an average bet size of two units.
On previous seasons I've focused mostly on totals, but for this season I'll be focusing on sides (spread + moneyline)
for couple of reasons. Mostly because I might not have the time to analyze them properly every day, but you can count on when I do analyze them, they will be top quality as they've been the past ten seasons. I take pride in my analysis and will not half-ass anything. I will still be analyzing the totals as well, but these I will share over Twitter for free.
For the past two seasons I've watched every single regular season game. I store some data manually which isn't available in the box score. Using my own data has been largely because of the focus on totals, where the estimations are almost purely based on data. But by watching all these games I've also learned a lot what I can use in analyzing spreads and moneylines, and the results of the past seasons have also confirmed my beliefs that I've got an edge on betting the sides. I envision the edge only to grow because I'm going to put more time and effort into sides rather than the totals. I realize the market is tough on the point spreads, but as a professional I also want to challenge myself and still keep on working to beat the market and understand the game better. Also a thing to consider is that the limits at bookers are way higher on the sides than on the totals, which is a major advantage in comparison to the totals. Hence the volume, the lines are bound to move in a direction I point them, because there are quite a few highrollers using my analysis. The higher limits will help with the rapid line movement we've seen in the past with the Pinnacle/Vegas totals moving by 1-3pt each game.
My working days during the season are usually around 12-16 hours per day, of which I'll be using most of my time watching the previous night's games (in Finland the games usually start at 2am and end around 9am). In addition to watching the games, the analysis itself takes time and I also have to keep an eye on health of the players, upcoming schedules for let downs, and various other factors to consider in the analysis. To summarize: I watch games, get my own data, read sports news sites, local news, fan forums and the rest of the day I hope to get some sleep in. And yes, I am a workaholic.
The service will be in Finnish, but people can ask me questions via Twitter (@SSukkela) and I'll reply to them. It just may take a bit more time than the Finnish replies, because my English is still a work in progress. I'll always send the tips in a format everyone can understand them. For example: Miami Heat - Boston Celtics, Miami -10.5 1.952 (55%) 2u. I will be using decimal odds because the vast majority of my clients are Finnish and the schedule when I'll post them will be in Finnish time as well (+2 GMT, seven hours ahead ET). Most of the time it'll be at 11pm Finnish time, with exceptions when there are games starting earlier than normal and on Saturdays and holidays. Before the season I also will send out an information package to everyone in both languages, which contains everything you need to know about the service.If you aren't happy with the quality of the service or you want to cancel your subscription for some other reason, you can cancel it at all times.
You will be refunded the amount that's entitled to you based on the amount of games left in the regular season schedule.Here are few things to consider before making the decision to get the analysis or not.
Do buy the service if:
- Your bankroll is at least 20 000€ ($26 000)
- You understand the risk in sports betting like in every investment where the return on investment can get quite high, there is also a healthy amount of risk involved.
- You understand the basic nature of sports betting: you're looking for the long-term return.
- You understand there is no such thing as easy money in sports betting. We're dealing with one of the major sports in the United States of A here, so the marginals are small and every decimal bloody well counts.
Do not buy the service if:
- You haven't at least been a recreationally active sports bettor, because you need the basic skills to get as much out of it as possible. You aren't allowed knee-jerk reactions,
- There are going to be losing days, losing weeks and maybe even a losing month or two, and on a downswing you could lose easily 30 units during in a week if the ball don't bounce our way. It happens, it's a game. But we'll get there in the long run.
- You're playing over your head if the upswing/downswing has major impact on your financial and mental state.The price of the analysis is 1260€ ($1650) via Moneybookers/Skrill or Paypal and will contain the point spreads for the regular season.
The totals I will dish out for free on Twitter and make decisions about post-season when the spring rolls around.
If you are interested and meet the criteria I recommended the service for, please send your order to nbaseason201314(at)gmail.com
Title: NBA season 2013-14 + your name
And in the message:
Address (don't forget the country!):
Email you want the tips delivered.
You can pay by Moneybookers/Skrill the 1260€ or $1650, and the email for that is mv68308(at)uta.fi. In the message "NBA 2013-14 + your name". My PayPal account setup will be finalized this week, so I'll be posting on Twitter the details about my PayPal account.
If you don't have Moneybookers/Skrill or Paypal, you can ask for my bank details so we can get the order done by international bank wire. The disadvantage of using international wire is the fees and the fairly long time it takes for the banks to make the transaction happen.And here are the links for previous six seasons' track I've ran the service including totals and sides
2007-08 https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key ... D98hz8prWw
2008-09 https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key ... iAnBay9Ebg
2009-10 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... qLVE#gid=0
2010-11 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... 2YVE#gid=1
2011-12 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... aNEE#gid=0
2012-13 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... 0MXc#gid=0
PS. During the holidays on 24th Dec - 1st Jan I will be doing a collaboration with Finnish betting forum Ylikerroin.com where I will provide my sides analysis. During this time I will let them know about my picks 30 minutes after the customers have received their emails. But from a customer standpoint, it's business as normal.