MLB 30.8

[odds]

<table border="1">
<tr><th>Date</th><th>Home team</th><th>Away team</th><th>prob 1</th><th>prob 2</th><th>odds 1</th><th>odds 2</th><th>value 1</th><th>value 2</th><th>stake</th><th>win</th></tr><tr><td>20:05</td><td><IMG>New York Yankees<br>C.Wang</td><td><B><IMG>Boston Red Sox<br>C.Schilling</B></td><td>52.06</td><td><B>47.94</B></td><td>1.59</td><td><B>2.62</B></td><td></td><td>1.26</td><td>5.27%</td><td>13.80</td></tr><tr><td>21:10</td><td><B><IMG>Kansas City Royals<br>L.Nunez</B></td><td><IMG>Detroit Tigers<br>J.Bonderman</td><td><B>51.15</B></td><td>48.85</td><td><B>2.41</B></td><td>1.67</td><td>1.23</td><td></td><td>5.50%</td><td>13.26</td></tr><tr><td>02:05</td><td><IMG>Baltimore Orioles<br>J.Guthrie</td><td><B><IMG>Tampa Bay Devil Rays<br>S.Kazmir</B></td><td>47.32</td><td><B>52.68</B></td><td>1.89</td><td><B>2.04</B></td><td></td><td>1.07</td><td>2.40%</td><td>4.89</td></tr><tr><td>02:05</td><td><IMG>Cleveland Indians<br>A.Laffey</td><td><B><IMG>Seattle Mariners<br>H.Ramirez</B></td><td>52.80</td><td><B>47.20</B></td><td>1.71</td><td><B>2.32</B></td><td></td><td>1.10</td><td>2.40%</td><td>5.57</td></tr><tr><td>03:35</td><td><IMG>Texas Rangers<br>K.Millwood</td><td><B><IMG>Chicago White Sox<br>J.Danks</B></td><td>52.18</td><td><B>47.82</B></td><td>1.71</td><td><B>2.32</B></td><td></td><td>1.11</td><td>2.76%</td><td>6.41</td></tr><tr><td>20:05</td><td><IMG>Philadelphia Phillies<br>K.Lohse</td><td><B><IMG>New York Mets<br>O.Hernandez</B></td><td>37.20</td><td><B>62.80</B></td><td>2.24</td><td><B>1.76</B></td><td></td><td>1.10</td><td>4.57%</td><td>8.03</td></tr><tr><td>21:05</td><td><B><IMG>Houston Astros<br>M.Albers</B></td><td><IMG>St. Louis Cardinals<br>J.Pineiro</td><td><B>55.84</B></td><td>44.16</td><td><B>2.10</B></td><td>1.85</td><td>1.17</td><td></td><td>5.23%</td><td>10.99</td></tr><tr><td>02:05</td><td><IMG>Pittsburgh Pirates<br>M.Morris</td><td><B><IMG>Cincinnati Reds<br>M.Belisle</B></td><td>49.23</td><td><B>50.77</B></td><td>1.92</td><td><B>2.01</B></td><td></td><td>1.02</td><td>0.677%</td><td>1.36</td></tr><tr><td>03:05</td><td><IMG>Chicago Cubs<br>T.Lilly</td><td><B><IMG>Milwaukee Brewers<br>M.Parra</B></td><td>56.82</td><td><B>43.18</B></td><td>1.61</td><td><B>2.56</B></td><td></td><td>1.11</td><td>2.25%</td><td>5.77</td></tr><tr><td>05:05</td><td><IMG>San Diego Padres<br>C.Young</td><td><B><IMG>Arizona Diamondbacks<br>D.Davis</B></td><td>59.30</td><td><B>40.70</B></td><td>1.61</td><td><B>2.55</B></td><td></td><td>1.04</td><td>0.813%</td><td>2.07</td></tr></table>
<B>Kokonaispanos 31.8753</B>

<table border="1">
<tr><th>Date</th><th>Home team</th><th>Away team</th><th>total</th><th>prob over</th><th>prob under</th><th>runs av.</th><th>home (-1.5)</th><th>away (+1.5)</th><th>home (+1.5)</th><th>away (-1.5)</th></tr><tr><td>20:05</td><td><IMG>New York Yankees<br>C.Wang</td><td><IMG>Boston Red Sox<br>C.Schilling</td><td>9.5</td><td><B>55.28</B></td><td></td><td>10.5681</td><td>2.85462</td><td>1.5392</td><td>1.59061</td><td>2.69316</td></tr><tr><td>21:10</td><td><IMG>Kansas City Royals<br>L.Nunez</td><td><IMG>Detroit Tigers<br>J.Bonderman</td><td>10.0</td><td>51.69</td><td></td><td>10.6688</td><td>2.85462</td><td>1.5392</td><td>1.59061</td><td>2.69316</td></tr><tr><td>02:05</td><td><IMG>Baltimore Orioles<br>J.Guthrie</td><td><IMG>Tampa Bay Devil Rays<br>S.Kazmir</td><td>8.5</td><td><B>57.44</B></td><td></td><td>9.70288</td><td>3.19608</td><td>1.45536</td><td>1.71956</td><td>2.38974</td></tr><tr><td>02:05</td><td><IMG>Cleveland Indians<br>A.Laffey</td><td><IMG>Seattle Mariners<br>H.Ramirez</td><td>11.0</td><td></td><td><B>71.33</B></td><td>9.01634</td><td>2.18409</td><td>1.84453</td><td>1.3191</td><td>4.13382</td></tr><tr><td>03:35</td><td><IMG>Texas Rangers<br>K.Millwood</td><td><IMG>Chicago White Sox<br>J.Danks</td><td>10.0</td><td>51.70</td><td></td><td>10.6776</td><td>2.58286</td><td>1.63177</td><td>1.49176</td><td>3.03353</td></tr><tr><td>20:05</td><td><IMG>Philadelphia Phillies<br>K.Lohse</td><td><IMG>New York Mets<br>O.Hernandez</td><td>10.0</td><td>53.05</td><td></td><td>10.818</td><td>3.0055</td><td>1.49863</td><td>1.65683</td><td>2.52247</td></tr><tr><td>21:05</td><td><IMG>Houston Astros<br>M.Albers</td><td><IMG>St. Louis Cardinals<br>J.Pineiro</td><td>9.5</td><td></td><td><B>61.90</B></td><td>8.6072</td><td>2.54161</td><td>1.64867</td><td>1.47787</td><td>3.09262</td></tr><tr><td>02:05</td><td><IMG>Pittsburgh Pirates<br>M.Morris</td><td><IMG>Cincinnati Reds<br>M.Belisle</td><td>9.5</td><td></td><td>52.91</td><td>9.57295</td><td>2.95827</td><td>1.51066</td><td>1.63562</td><td>2.57327</td></tr><tr><td>03:05</td><td><IMG>Chicago Cubs<br>T.Lilly</td><td><IMG>Milwaukee Brewers<br>M.Parra</td><td>8.5</td><td></td><td><B>60.14</B></td><td>7.5469</td><td>2.64963</td><td>1.6062</td><td>1.51274</td><td>2.9503</td></tr><tr><td>05:05</td><td><IMG>San Diego Padres<br>C.Young</td><td><IMG>Arizona Diamondbacks<br>D.Davis</td><td>7.0</td><td><B>55.14</B></td><td></td><td>7.86883</td><td>2.54161</td><td>1.64867</td><td>1.47787</td><td>3.09262</td></tr></table>

Total runs 95.0477 (in - games)

[west hampton]

Jos MLB:n Moneyline -vetojesi oa:t jaetaan eri luokkiin vaikkapa seuraavasti:

1,01-1,05
1,06-1,10
1,11-1,15
1,16-1,20
1,21>

Niin oletko pitänyt kirjaa, millä oa. luokalla on paras palautusprosentti?

[odds]

Nämä luvut eivät täysin pidä paikkaansa. Kyseessä on osittain simuloitu tulos. Tällä kaudella seurannan palautus ollut 103% ja kaudella 2006 106%, joten hyvin lähellä tuota näillä luvuilla mennään.


Kausi 2007:

oa 1.05-1.10: Palautus-% 98.3
oa 1.10-1.20: Palautus-% 107.7
oa 1.20- Palautus-% 106.4

Kausi 2006:

oa 1.05-1.10 Palautus-% 111.826
oa 1.10-1.20 Palautus-% 98.4065
oa 1.20- Palautus-% 106.072

Kausi 2005:

oa 1.05-1.10 Palautus-% 103
oa 1.10-1.20 Palautus-% 109.953
oa 1.20- Palautus-% 106.375


Vuosien välillä erot suuria vaikka kyseessä on tuhansia otteluita per kausi. Näyttää siltä että palautus ollut suunnilleen sama, joka luokassa, joten pienimmillä odotusarvoilla analyysi lienee tarkinta.

Mitä nyt yleisesti tulee tähän kauteen, niin pieni pettymys ollut näin vaisu menestys. Toisaalta vuosi sitten tässä vaiheessa kautta pelikassa oli 10 kertaa pienempi kuin tällä hetkellä, joten jos viime syksy toistaa itseään niin kaikki saattaa vielä muuttua.