European Ice Hockey Challenge 7-9.11.

[Xavi]

Pari hakua huomiselle, tähän aikaan päivästä on turha odotella suomenkielisiä versioita...

I should be in bed right now, but when I noticed that bookers offer odds to these games, I couldn´t help myself...

Latvia hasn´t all their best players in their team. Not even near. If you look at their roster, there are only few players outside their own league. There are couple of great players (Alexander Kercs and Darzins Lauris which plays in Lukko´s junior-team) but rest of the team isn´t any good. Half of the team have changed after first tournament in September. They all are very skillful with the puck if you give time and space to them, but everybody knows Poland´s style to play ice hockey. They play tough and especially their defenders are hard to pass because they don´t watch puck, they just get the man far away from it. Anyway, Poland´s team is near their best possible and in my opinion Latvia isn´t a big favourite at all. 45% is maximum for them and so I bet on X for 5.00 and 2 for 4.75 in Centre. That is 2.43 for Poland +0.5 and my probability around 55%.

Please don´t trust on me so much that you put half of your cash in this one... I just totally disagree with bookers after seeing team rosters.


Even though Denmark plays in A-league in WC and Norway in B-league there is no big difference between these teams. Both teams have about two lines men in "better" series, Norway has players in Sweden and Germany and Denmark only in Sweden. And the rest of players are very equal also.

As I said, Denmark is now supposed to pass their "big brother" in ice hockey but that is not the whole truth. Norway´s team is not any worse and they also want to show what they really can. I consider these almost even (despite the home advantage for Denmark) and so I give about 38-39% for Norway and bet on them for 2.75 (several bookers).

[Xavi]

Täältä pesee taas, jos jotakuta sattuu vaikka kiinnostamaan...

I keep on my own opinions. Latvia´s team isn´t great at all. Norway has much more their "stars" in team this time. Latvia - Poland was quite an even match, 4-2 and shots were about 36-34 or so. Also Norway and Denmark played quite evenly though match ended 4-2 for Denmark.

I consider this match as even and if I should give a favourite it would be Norway. They have much more experienced players in their team and they must be hungry after losing to Denmark. So Expekt´s 2.20 for Norway +0.5 tastes SOOOOOO good. And my guess is not more or less but 60%... Do your own conclusions...


Slovakia´s ice hockey pages consider their loss to Hungary as a shock and that really is it. Now they face Netherlands and the difference between materials is HUGE. Even though all best Slovakians play abroad and this team consists only player from their own league. I believe that Slovakia´s coach has had a little conversation with players after Hungary-match and they will be now very motivated to show their skills...

80% for Slovakia isn´t too much and so 1.35 is easily enough.


Poland - Denmark under 5.5 1.90
Austria - Slovenia over 5.5 1.90

These all are available in Nordic.

These bets are based on statictics and game styles. Probability for both is at least 55%.

[parre]

Hei luin hockey.no että norjan valmentaja joutu vähän lottoamalla valitsemaan miehistönsä kun valmentaa Spartaa.Ei ole seurannut pelaajien edes ottamuksia laisinkaan.Silloinkin kun Sparta pelannut hän on keskittynyt enemmän omien pelaajien tarkkailuun.Kun et olis maajoukkuetta valitsemassa

[Xavi]

Pelistä on toki jo yli puolet pelattu, mutta kannattaa muistaa, että Norjan tapauksessa lähes pari kentällistä huippumiehiä tulee maan rajojen ulkopuolelta, joten maan sisäinen pelaajascouttaus ei ole niin ratkaisevassa roolissa. Ja toisekseen kyllä kai pelaajavalinnat suhteellisen selviä kuitenkin tuolla tasolla ovat, ei Norjassa nyt hirveää ylitarjontaa maajoukkuemiehistä luulisi olevan. Ja jos Suomessakin laitettaisiin kuka tahansa SM-liigavalmentajista valitsemaan maajoukuetta, niin eiköhän se ainakin 80-90% olisi kaikilla samannäköinen, vaikka pelaajia ei sillä silmällä olisikaan tarkkaillut.

[parre]

Joo ei muuta kun valmentaja tätä valitteli