England Championship, League One & Two 2015 - 2016

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League 2 : Hartlepool United- Newport County 18/08/2015


Not sure why Terry Butcher was appointed as County boss, his record in England as a head coach is terrible and in charge of League 2 clubs, he had a frightful six months or so at Brentford in 2007, he has a 18.52 % win rate and no experience of English football, let alone this division in the interim eight years, including three out of the game ! He has yet to break his duck at County, the three games he has taken charge of this season have all gone "over" conceding two or more in each and I expect this to follow suit. He has a very young and inexperienced squad, five of the 14 who played in the 2-2 draw with Stevenage at the weekend were aged 17-18 and the fact that one of only two substitutions was made in the 94th minute there, highlights the lack of options, especially experienced ones, at his disposal.

Home boss Ronnie Moore has a much better lower league record and knows the game well, he took charge of Pools in December with the club bottom of League 2 and heading out of the Football League, having averaged only 0.6 pts per game, Moore upped that to 1.27 pts and oversaw the great escape. His team are a perfect 3 from 3 this season and will fancy their chances of adding to that , with the scheduler having kindly organised a nice 900 km round trip and approx ten hours on a team bus for County on a Tuesday night ! Both league meetings last season ended 2-2 and it is hard to make a case for the visitors not to concede at least twice again. United remain without Trevor Carson in goal and central defender Harry Worley, who left the pitch inside the opening ten minutes on Saturday, is a major doubt and the hosts are already lacking alternatives in the middle of the backline. That is enough to make we opt for the "over" 2-1/2-2 or something similar .

over 2.5 goals 2.14 asian line/ Sportmarket.

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England Championship: Bristol City- Leeds 19/08/2015

Last round Leeds took the lead quite late, but conceded an equaliser even later and that has set the tempo for all their games under Rosler so far, also drawing at Reading on Sunday and in a Yorkshire derby at Doncaster Rovers in the Capital One Cup last midweek, where they had to play much of the game with ten men. The match against the Royals was a turgid affair with very few chances and it had a 0-0 look from about the 10th minute onwards, Rosler has his teams well organised and prepared, but is far too negative at times, especially on the road, when drawing or holding a narrow lead, for my liking. However, his team's are very hard to break down and getting a handicap start against newly promoted City, who are pointless so far and under quite a bit of pressure to get at least a point tonight, looks the way to go. I saw the Robins on Saturday, in their 4-2 home defeat to Brentford, City were 2-1 up and had missed good chances to extend that lead, before the match turned on the sending off of Luke Freeman. From that moment on (35th minute), it was all Bees and the away win never looked in doubt. Brentford are very confident with their passing game and the wide open spaces of Ashton Gate (which looks bigger as there are only three sides to the stadium at present) played to their strengths, which meant that for much of the next hour + , City had to work incredibly hard and at times where chasing shadows and the quick turnaround when many players are still coming to terms with life at the higher level, is a big ask on the back of that.

They will be without Freeman tonight, he played in central midfield, right at the heart of what was a 3-5-2 and the catalyst of so much of what they did offensively, he was on Saturday (after his departure) and will be today, a very big loss, Freeman was ever present last season, contributing seven goals and 18 assists and for many, was the stand out performer in League 1. City know they are a couple of players short of being competitive in the Championship and made what looked like a bit of a panic bid yesterday of £9m for Andre Gray of the Bees, they have a wealthy owner, but in terms of FFP, this is a signing they cannot really afford (as I type it has still not been completed). Anyway, we will discuss Gray in the future, for now, suffice to say that City are still coming to grips with life at this level, need to strengthen and are without perhaps their best player today. United have won the last six h2h meetings with City ,have scored eight (two or more in each) in their last three visits to Bristol and look good for at least a point and I don't feel that the hosts would be too disappointed with that. We are at a very early stage of the season, but almost 52% of games in the Championship have ended all square, many teams look evenly matched and there is a lot of jostling for position, especially in the transfer market and for now, games in general might continue to be hard to win. Things will probably return to "normal" after the transfer window has closed.


Leeds United +0.25 ball 2.05 asian line/Sportmarket.

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England League1 Barnsley - Shrewsbury Town 09.05


I gave a big mention to Barnsley in my League 1 outright notes (see below) and I suggest that quickly reading those is a good place to start this preview. The hosts made a good start to League 1 and pushed Everton all the way in the Capital One Cup recently, losing in extra time, ahead of that my notes included..........."I feel the Tykes are still trying to integrate a lot of new signings into the squad and to get them to play a certain way and are therefore, still very much a team in transition, one who will improve through the season" . They impressed a lot of people with their performance that day and boss Lee johnson has clearly got them to gel quickly. After such a draining and high profile (televised) fixture against top flight opposition, it was perhaps no surprise that they had little left for their league game a couple of days later, but the got back on track in the JPT this midweek and might be facing Town at the perfect time. The visitors have been big sellers in the window and lost the crown jewels in terms of four hugely promising young players in Conor Goldson ( Brighton), Josh Ginnelly (Burnley), Harry Lewis (Southampton) and Ryan Woods (Brentford), fees were undisclosed, but I know the Bees paid close to £1m and Town have banked circa £2m, but this will not be spent on new signings, but on securing the long term future of the club and players coming in will be young and pretty much bargain basement. These are big losses, Woods was their driving force in midfield and they have lost 6 of 11 starts he has missed in the last two campaigns and remember, that includes a promotion season.

Despite not yet getting the John Stones funds ( see below) and they will come sooner or later in any case, the Tykes signed two proven lower league strikers in Michael Smith (15 L1 goals for Swindon Town last season) and Simeon Jackson (50 in three seasons at up to Championship level) and look to be firmly targeting promotion. Town need to regroup and I don't feel a trip to Oakwell is the best place to start and that odds for the home side are very generous today.


Barnsley -0.25 ball 2.21 asian line/ Sportmarket .

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League 1: Sheffield United -Colchester United 15.09


This is another match where I cannot agree with the odds, but this time I am firmly behind the hosts. United are 4-0-2, all games have been decisive with the four wins and two defeats all coming by at least two goals which is unusual, the Blades are coming off a 3-1 home defeat to Bury at the weekend, but dominated that game and on another day would have won by a couple of goals. They will be very motivated to get back on track , not least as they face back to back Yorkshire derby games after this, starting with a massive trip to Bradford City on Sunday in front of the television cameras. They desperately need maximum points this evening.

Squad size and fitness levels, boss Nigel Adkins works his teams as hard as anyone outside the top two divisions, should give United an advantage with the quick turnaround and he is certainly not underestimating Colchester, despite them not having posted a win yet, he has had them watched several times and gave a very detailed and good report on the U's on the Blades website yesterday. The visitors are operating on a different level to the hosts and have tight bedgetry restraints, they have conceded four in their last 12 competitive starts and the three they shipped at Chesterfield on Saturday give real cause for concern, as the Spirites played over 75 minutes with ten men and United only equalised very late when the home side just ran out of energy. Trips to Chesterfield and Sheffield United back to back are tough regardless of how many men they faced at the weekend and they conceded seven to Sheffield United in two defeats last season, losing 4-1 here in February.

If the hosts win, the handicap should not be an issue, so .....

Sheffield United -1 ball 2.25 asian line/ Sportmarket.

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League 1 : Colchester United- Bradford City 29.09.2015

Colchester were largely outplayed last round, but won 2-1 with the Gills missing a penalty and a whole host of late chances, defensively the U's have been underfperforming, but they certainly have goals in them , they are battling hard and must be confident after that series of results and they followed up with another three points at Swindon Town with a 2-1 win on Saturday. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, a lot went their way in that game with Town suffering a series of injuries both immediately before and early during the match .

Today they hosts Bradford City who were amongst the pre season promotion favourites, but who find themselves nearer the drop zone than playoffs , although a couple of wins will soon address that, they looked to be running into some form before they stalled with a 2-0 home defeat to a surging Peterborough United at the weekend in front of an almost 18,000 crowd ( City are a massive club at this level) and will want to immediately bounce back this evening. They will have to do so without midfielder Paul Anderson who broke his leg against Posh and again fate does seem to be smiling a little on United. However, City have played really well in their last three road starts and they, like every team who has faced United in recent weeks will get chances and probably numerous ones and I would be amazed if there were not goals in this for both teams. City are hard hit by injury and weakened on both flanks and the home side could have a lot of joy out wide and despite all their defensive failings, have scored 14 in their last six starts, two or more in each and a feature of those games has been early goals, with 14 before the half hour mark in their last seven games, two or more in six and that always helps with "overs" !


over 2.75 goals 2.13 asian line/Sportmarket.

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England Championship Rotherham - Reading

Neil Redfearn has a big task to try and keep the Millers in the Championship, I saw his debut as boss at the weekend , a 2-1 feat at Griffin Park to the mighty Bees and on this occasion the league table doesn't lie and they are the weakest tean I have seen in the second tier this season and by quite some way. Previous bos Steve Evans has always had a revolving door policy of players at the club and another huge number of summer signings means a lack of cohesion (second fewest competed passes in the division) and no real planning, bringing in 15-16 players every off season is so very hit and miss and whilst it worked in L2 and L1, it didn't last season in the Championship and United were fortunate to survive, Evans said he would do things differently this time round, but like a teenager addicted to Ebay, he could not resist the lure and was busy oiling those revolving doors almost as soon as the 2014-15 campiagn ended !

So a lot of work for Redfearn to do and what he could really do with is some time and the matches are coming too thick and fast for that, he could also do without a lengthy injury list, which has meant he had to dip into the loan market yesterday and bring yet another player into the club and on top of everything else, the Millers have their biggest game of the season in three days time, when huge local rivals Sheffield Wednesday, who one United fan told me on Saturday that "they are the only club we really hate", visit the New York Stadium for a televised fixture. As a born and bred Yorkshireman, Redfearn will know all about that and as a club, United will have one eye on that fixture.

Latest injury for them came to left back Joe Mattock who left the field late on Saturday, he was one of their more impressive defenders and although the Millers have been conceding at the rate of almost two per game, they have given up "just" 1.25 pg in the eight he has started, 3.67 in the three he has sat out. Reading are strong on the flanks, tight defensively (no team has conceded fewer goals) and will almost certainly stay in the automatic promotion places with all three points. Steve Clarke has used the off season well and has got the Royals so much better organised this season and can use his bigger and much less injury hit squad to good advantage in this quick turnaround.

Reading -0.75 ball 2.28 asian line/Sportmarket.

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England Championship Derby County - QPR 03.11.2015

I was not terribly impressed by Rangers on Friday night, they did hit the woodwork twice, but neither attempt look like it was going in, a bit of a looping head dipped at the last moment and caught the top of the bar, a shot that looked to be going wide just clipped the outside of the post, at least that is how I saw things through my rose tinted ( red and white ?) glasses ! Those aside, they created nothing at all, their build up play was poor and to be honest, a little clueless at times with no game plan and very little passion. I do not like highlighting coaches in trouble, but have now done it twice in this email and if Chris Ramsey is still in charge at Christmas, he will have done well and I will be surprised. The amazing thing is that QPR are the third worst passing team in the Championship, it is incredble as they play so many aimless sideways balls, so my instinct would be that those stats should be "good" and that they are bad, has got a lot of alarm bells ringing in my head !. Defender Clint Hill was one of the few to show any passion, but even as he left the field limping with a knock, I heard one wag say "that was the fastest he had moved all night", he is missing tonight and there are very few positives in this team right now. Rangers have conceded 13 goals in the last six matches Hill has sat out, including six in the last two on the road and this match has the potential to get ugly !

After the last home game vs Wolverhampton (4-2) I wrote "that they looked very good at times, but I would argue nowhere near their peak and it is a little scary to think of the offensive threat they pose and the damage they could and will cause, once they really hit their stride."

Derby won last round 3-0 and it could easily have been five or six goals and afterwards boss Paul Clement said:"I am learning about my players all the time. "They are showing so many different qualities now, whether it be the team spirit or dealing with different styles of football."The momentum is really building and we are enjoying the way we are playing and we are full of confidence.

They will be without George Thorne tonight after he picked up a fifth yellow card, but this is a very strong squad, highlighted by Bryson, Hendrick and Bent coming off the bench at the weekend and you would struggle to find another second tier team for whom that trio would not all start. If Rangers play like they did on Friday and judging by comments on their forums that was a typical recent performance and County play even close to their usual standard, the visitors "cannot" win this. To get a result, they need to greatly improve and County have an off night and it is hard to see either happening right now.

Derby County -1 ball 2.26 asian line/Sportmarket.

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England League 1 Colchester United vs Coventry City 14.11

I spoke a lot early season about how gung-ho United were and they have returned to those free and easy ways recently, with four of their last six starts producing five or more goals, with two having eight, they have conceded two or more on five occasions in that sequence. City have conceded two or more in each of their last four, games which have averaged 4.75 goals, including a home loss to lower league Northampton Town last weekend. Two of those other games were against teams in freefall who cannot buy a win and it is hard not to see them giving up a couple today against a host who have a host of offensive options, but are very vulnerable at the other end of the pitch. United look to have unearthered a natural goalscorer in young striker Macauley Bonne, who only turned 20 at the end of last month and celebrated with four goals in the FA Cup last week and playing alongside a still only 24yo Marvin Sordell who is looking to resurrect his career after a series of big money Championship moves, this looks a potent and fast improving pairing. Goals !

over 3 goals 2.17 asian line/Sportmarket.

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Championship: Ipswich Town - Middlesbrough

Big game for both , Town can move into the play off places, at least for 24 hours with a point and Boro would go top, with all three.

Ipswich are in their best form of the season, are unbeaten in six, scoring 12 goals in their last four (three wins) and are very tough to beat on home soil, 3-5-1 this season and they collected a Championship high 50 points here last season, which included a 2-0 defeat of Middlesbrough, infact, Boro have lost on their last three visits, all by 2+ goals and have not posted a win at portman Road in more than 20 years. The Tractor Boys have drawn too many games here this season, but only Burnley have won and a point in this fixture is almost always seen as one earned and not two lost by Championship clubs. Boro are well aware of how tough this will be and doubly so as they played a Capital One Cup game with Everton in midweek, they rotated quite heavily for that, but eight players featured in both the cup tie and the win at Huddersfield last weekend and a third really taxing game inside seven days is going to be a big ask for some and I really do not see why Boro should be favourites to win this. I have already seen Ipswich at Griffin Park this season, they were big, strong, well organised, exactly how they and any team managed by Mick McCarthy always are and despite that being the opening day of the season, it was already fairly clear that they would again be in and around the playoffs. However, as I mentioned earlier this week, it is going to be tough for any of the teams outside the top five to break into that elite group and if clubs do not simply want to be playing for one remaining post season place, they can afford few slip ups and have to make the most of home games against teams above them in the table and that makes this game hugely important for Town. Boro are a bit physical on the road, but those tactics will not work against Ipswich and I have to side with the hosts, with the draw no bet safeguard.

Ipswich Town level ball 2.02 asian line/Sportmarket.

There is one major concern and that is David Nugent is now a Boro player following his move from Leicester City in the summer and he simply loves to play against Town, with a whopping 14 goals in his last 13 matches against them for City, Preston and Portsmouth (remember them ?) , if that was not impressive enough, he has scored in a perfect 7/7 visits tp Portman Road, nine goals in total and no prizes for guessing that he nominates it as his favourite away ground. He was one of those rested in midweek and if Boro are to score this evening, the goal(s) seems as likely to come via him as anyone else

Daryl Murphy has six goals in his last three league games for Ipswich, after failing to score in his first 13 and you know that I love a striker in form, he was top Championship scorer last season with 27 goals, six more than anyone else, including the opener in this fixture last season and his earlier drought was simply a blip and recent Town opponents are paying the price.

Nugent and Murphy are both circa 2.80-3.10 general quote in the anytime goalscorer markets and both are probably a little on the big side at the upper end given those stats, especially Murphy, who is the focus of so much of what Town do offensively and he has averaged far better than a goal every two games for the last 16 months, despite a 13 match fry spell, which is incredible (0.67 goals per game otherwise).

Taking either would be fine, but Town will be looking for Murphy at every opportunity and if you can find 2.875-3.10 I would suggest 1 unit....there is 3.30 on Betfair sportsbook btw.

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England Championship: Reading vs Blackburn Rovers

Reading have lost their way and have only beaten basement club Bolton in their last ten starts and have really struggled to hold onto leads in that sequence. Rovers are on an unbetaen run of eight and have only conceded once in four away starts and not at all in closing in on 300 minutes and not lost to the Royals in 11 league meetings. The visitors are suddenly very well organised under Paul Lambert and could move to within three points of the playoffs with the win this afternoon. Hosts have a new manager to impress in Brian McDermott, but he has only had a couple of days with the squad and he has some big defensive issues with Andrew Taylor , Anton Ferdinand and Chris Gunter major doubts, Gunter is the only recognised right back and a midfielder will probably drop back if he misses out, his eye injury was bad and required a lot of stitches. Seems sure that the Royals will have players out of position, or a very young backline against a well organised team in good form, with a potent Championship striker in Jordan Rhodes. McDermott will also probably not be able to play his preferred formation either and I think he is going to need time to turn this group around.

Blackburn Rovers level ball 2.28 asian line/Sportmarket

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England Championship: Brentford vs Brighton

Not going to spend too long on this, we have discussed the Bees more than any other team in the last three years and most of you know more about them than any club apart from your own. Last week ahead of a home game with Huddersfield Town my notes included ........

"That ended 2-2, Bees led, gifted Fulham an equaliser with a real howler of an own goal from James Tarkowski and were wrongly denied a winner from Jota for offside . In midweek, they went to Cardiff City and lost 3-2, they started very sluggishly, which was always going to be a bit of a concern after the big derby game and were two down at the break, but came on strong in the second period and especially with the introduction of Jota and Josh McEachran and a team leading showing from captain Alan Judge, which got them back on level terms and there was only one winner from that stage and the Bees were well on top, only to lose deep in injury time following another defensive error. Not too much to worry about, they should have scored five against Dons, three at Fulham and got two at Cardiff, they have a VERY strong bench now and goals are really going to start flowing soon. Central defender Harlee Dean will be available following suspension today and Maxime Colin will should come in at right back after a long term injury and both should help steady the Bees defensively. Jota must be close to a full start now and surely we will get an hour from McEachran who was hugely impressive from the bench in midweek. "

No start from Jota, but he got another outing from the bench, as did McEachran, Colin and Dean both started and the backline looked far more solid , despite conceding twice (one was down to a player slipping when there was no danger and the game already won). Very promising, but they will be tested fully today by Brighton, who finally lost their unbeaten record last weekend. However, the visitors suddenly look vulnerable, have conceded two or more in their last four starts, including at home to a struggling Charlton and with the Bees so full of goals, four last week should have been six and the 13 they have scored in their last six starts ( 2+ in five), could easily, no, should have been 20, it is hard not to see some offensive joy today for the hosts. Bees scored four in the two h2h games last season, both of which they won and can thrill a sold out Griffin Park in this early kick off. I think they might win and could really be facing the Seagulls at the right time and there is a big rivalry between the two club owners, who were formerly friends, so the players know what it means to Matthew Benham, but I feel the best value by far is ............

Brentford to score two or more goals 2.30-2.375 general quote.

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England League 1 : Gillingham vs Colchester United

Colchester lost 2-0 at home to neighbours Southend United last round, but they were much improved there, especially in the first half and I do think that they might get back on track in the coming weeks once new boss Kevin Keen has had some time to work with the squad , that will have to be more than the few hours he has had over the weekend to discuss things and what United could really do with is a free seven days, but there is little chance of that right now. Gills are coming from back to back road wins by an aggregate of 6-1 and they will be looking for something similar today, after losing their long unbeaten home record in their last start at Priestfield a 3-0 loss to Burton Albion. The Brewers were worthy winners, but the match turned on the first half dismissal of Doug Loft and the scoreline was given a lopsided look by two injury time goals once the Gills had thrown caution to the wind.

Hosts are our big (huge) priced outright selection for League 1 and the two wins over the holiday have got them right back in contention and the 3-1 win at Swindon Town on Saturday was very impressive, they came from behind against a team running into form, also missed a penalty, so the win could have been even more emphatic and all their "star" names appear to have returned to form. Bradley Dack, who is a player we have discussed several times and one who has had a lot of interest from higher up the footballing food chain, has scored in the last two and a goal scoring midfielder is always in demand and there will be a scout from almost every Championship club looking at him and several other Gills today. Home win.

Gillingham -0.75 ball 1.98 asian line/Sportmarket

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England League 1: Bradford - Rochdale

I see a lot of similarities between this Bradford city team and the one which we were strongly with through their 2012-13 League 2 promotion year, they came with a big run there to win the playoffs and despite getting distracted with cup runs and a poor playing surface in subsequent campaigns, they have improved in each, finishing 11th and 7th , they are a big club and have the level of support to once more become an established Championship side and look to be coming on strong in the second half of the campaign and timing their run well. They have posted back to back wins over direct playoff rivals in Peterborough United and Southend United by a combined 6-0 and meet a Rochdale side who are very hit and miss, recent wins over league leaders Burton Albion and third placed Walsall, were sandwiched between losses to Barnsley and Chesterfield who were both in the drop zone and where they conceded nine goals, just about sums them up ! Visiting boss Keith Hill is a head caoch I have a lot of time for and he will never compromise his principles and his teams are always pleasing on the eye and will look to get forward at every opportunity, witness the two points and two goal lead thrown away at home to Crewe Alexandra last week. Dale are struggling defensively and I was quite shocked to read some of the comments on their forum, which were very much of the "I think we have enough about us to stay up " variety, which is a little telling as they are eight points clear of the drop zone with at game in hand on most teams below them.

The visitors have won only three times on the road all season and have been dealing with lengthy injury problems and lacking a real central defensive pairing and that looks likely to cost them dear today, City striker James Hanson is listed as 1.93m, but looks much taller and is a huge aerial threat and can punish that defensive weakness, he has returned to form with four goals in his last four starts and will be up for this today. He caused Dale a lot of problems last year with a goal and assist agaisnt them and will have been sorry to have started on the bench in the reverse fixture this season , which City won 3-1, creating a lot of chances and with two goals coming from crosses into the box.City are tight defensively and have only conceded 11 at home this season, but goals at the other end have been hard to come by until recently and if they have largely solved those issues, they are going to be tough to kep out of the top six. Home win.

Bradford City -0.5 ball 2.09 asian line/Sportmarket