MLB 2006 tilastotietoa

[odds]

Juoksuja keskimäärin ottelu 9.75 (kausi 2005: 9.18 )

Kotijoukkue voittanut 54.1% (kausi 2005: 53.7%)



Kausi 2006:
Pelaamalla (pelejä 1825)
Kotijoukkuetta 1822.88
Vierasjoukkuetta 1777.66
Suosikkia 1767.19
Altavastaajaa 1833.35


Kausi 2005:
Pelaamalla (pelejä 1394)
Kotijoukkuetta 1313.62
Vierasjoukkuetta 1450.48
Suosikkia 1344.72
Altavastaajaa 1419.38


Kuten tilaistoista näkyy kausittaiset vaihtelut ovat varsin suuria. Jos omat vedot rakentaisi edellisen kauden tilastojen pohjalta (esimerkiksi painottaen vierasjoukkueita), niin tulos saattaakin olla katastrofi.



Pelaamalla joka otteluun joukkueen voittoa:<table border="1\"><tr><th>Place</th><th>Team</th><th>Value</th></tr><tr><td>15</td><td>Detroit Tigers</td><td>1.17</td></tr><tr><td>24</td><td>Oakland Athletics</td><td>1.10</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>New York Mets</td><td>1.10</td></tr><tr><td>19</td><td>Minnesota Twins</td><td>1.08</td></tr><tr><td>11</td><td>Chicago White Sox</td><td>1.05</td></tr><tr><td>23</td><td>Arizona Diamondbacks</td><td>1.04</td></tr><tr><td>14</td><td>Cincinnati Reds</td><td>1.04</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>New York Yankees</td><td>1.03</td></tr><tr><td>28</td><td>Texas Rangers</td><td>1.03</td></tr><tr><td>27</td><td>Los Angeles Dodgers</td><td>1.01</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>Florida Marlins</td><td>1.01</td></tr><tr><td>17</td><td>Kansas City Royals</td><td>1.00</td></tr><tr><td>25</td><td>Colorado Rockies</td><td>1.00</td></tr><tr><td>22</td><td>Los Angeles Angels</td><td>0.996</td></tr><tr><td>29</td><td>San Diego Padres</td><td>0.985</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>Boston Red Sox</td><td>0.982</td></tr><tr><td>10</td><td>Washington Nationals</td><td>0.973</td></tr><tr><td>9</td><td>Toronto Blue Jays</td><td>0.971</td></tr><tr><td>18</td><td>Milwaukee Brewers</td><td>0.966</td></tr><tr><td>30</td><td>San Francisco Giants</td><td>0.959</td></tr><tr><td>12</td><td>Chicago Cubs</td><td>0.948</td></tr><tr><td>1</td><td>Baltimore Orioles</td><td>0.942</td></tr><tr><td>8</td><td>Philadelphia Phillies</td><td>0.935</td></tr><tr><td>21</td><td>St. Louis Cardinals</td><td>0.922</td></tr><tr><td>7</td><td>Tampa Bay Devil Rays</td><td>0.912</td></tr><tr><td>26</td><td>Seattle Mariners</td><td>0.910</td></tr><tr><td>16</td><td>Houston Astros</td><td>0.902</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>Atlanta Braves</td><td>0.881</td></tr><tr><td>13</td><td>Cleveland Indians</td><td>0.876</td></tr><tr><td>20</td><td>Pittsburgh Pirates</td><td>0.849</td></tr>Average 0.986</table>Pelaamalla joukkueen jokaiseen otteluun over-vaihtoehtoa (under käänteisesti):<table border="1\"><tr><th>Place</th><th>Team</th><th>Value</th></tr><tr><td>27</td><td>Los Angeles Dodgers</td><td>1.15</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>Atlanta Braves</td><td>1.14</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>New York Mets</td><td>1.13</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>Boston Red Sox</td><td>1.13</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>Florida Marlins</td><td>1.11</td></tr><tr><td>13</td><td>Cleveland Indians</td><td>1.11</td></tr><tr><td>22</td><td>Los Angeles Angels</td><td>1.10</td></tr><tr><td>12</td><td>Chicago Cubs</td><td>1.08</td></tr><tr><td>14</td><td>Cincinnati Reds</td><td>1.08</td></tr><tr><td>18</td><td>Milwaukee Brewers</td><td>1.08</td></tr><tr><td>1</td><td>Baltimore Orioles</td><td>1.08</td></tr><tr><td>23</td><td>Arizona Diamondbacks</td><td>1.07</td></tr><tr><td>8</td><td>Philadelphia Phillies</td><td>1.07</td></tr><tr><td>30</td><td>San Francisco Giants</td><td>1.07</td></tr><tr><td>11</td><td>Chicago White Sox</td><td>1.06</td></tr><tr><td>10</td><td>Washington Nationals</td><td>1.05</td></tr><tr><td>9</td><td>Toronto Blue Jays</td><td>1.04</td></tr><tr><td>21</td><td>St. Louis Cardinals</td><td>1.03</td></tr><tr><td>26</td><td>Seattle Mariners</td><td>1.02</td></tr><tr><td>17</td><td>Kansas City Royals</td><td>1.02</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>New York Yankees</td><td>1.00</td></tr><tr><td>19</td><td>Minnesota Twins</td><td>0.992</td></tr><tr><td>29</td><td>San Diego Padres</td><td>0.984</td></tr><tr><td>20</td><td>Pittsburgh Pirates</td><td>0.984</td></tr><tr><td>28</td><td>Texas Rangers</td><td>0.960</td></tr><tr><td>16</td><td>Houston Astros</td><td>0.959</td></tr><tr><td>7</td><td>Tampa Bay Devil Rays</td><td>0.943</td></tr><tr><td>24</td><td>Oakland Athletics</td><td>0.911</td></tr><tr><td>25</td><td>Colorado Rockies</td><td>0.837</td></tr><tr><td>15</td><td>Detroit Tigers</td><td>0.805</td></tr>Average 1.03</table>

[odds]

Seuraavassa taulukossa vertailu stadioneittain. Katetuilla stadioneilla tuuli ka. on merkitty ykköseksi. Vähäisen tuulen sarakkeeseen on laskettu pelit, joissa tuulen voimakkuus alle 90% stadionin keskiarvosta. Vastaavasti voimakkaan tuulen sarakkeeseen pelit, joissa tuulen voimakkuus yli 110% keskiarvosta.

Tässä ei ole tuulen suuntaa huomioitu ja tulokset ovatkin sen verran ristiriitaisia että se jo todistaa tuulen suunnan merkityksen. Markuksella olisi varmasti tietoa siitä miten tuulen suunta vaikuttaa syöttö- ja lyöntityöskentelyyn.




<table border="1\"><tr><th>Stadium</th><th>home team</th><th>Number of games</th><th>Wind average</th><th>Runs average</th><th>Runs av. low wind</th><th>Runs av. high wind</th><th>Wind factor</th></tr><tr><td>Ameriquest Field in Arlington, Arlington, TX</td><td>Texas Rangers</td><td>142</td><td>12.38 mph </td><td>10.76</td><td>10.89(60)</td><td>9.55(62)</td><td>-1.34</td></tr><tr><td>Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD</td><td>Baltimore Orioles</td><td>145</td><td>7.23 mph </td><td>9.56</td><td>8.84(70)</td><td>11.15(43)</td><td>2.31</td></tr><tr><td>Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO</td><td>Kansas City Royals</td><td>144</td><td>8.94 mph </td><td>10.44</td><td>9.84(70)</td><td>10.71(53)</td><td>0.873</td></tr><tr><td>Safeco Field, Seattle, WA</td><td>Seattle Mariners</td><td>140</td><td>3.96 mph </td><td>8.91</td><td>9.03(70)</td><td>8.27(40)</td><td>-0.764</td></tr><tr><td>McAfee Coliseum, Oakland, CA</td><td>Oakland Athletics</td><td>143</td><td>12.20 mph </td><td>8.96</td><td>8.43(45)</td><td>8.78(56)</td><td>0.358</td></tr><tr><td>Shea Stadium, Flushing, NY</td><td>New York Mets</td><td>140</td><td>11.14 mph </td><td>8.71</td><td>9.39(71)</td><td>9.69(41)</td><td>0.304</td></tr><tr><td>Miller Park, Milwaukee, WI</td><td>Milwaukee Brewers</td><td>143</td><td>8.04 mph </td><td>9.08</td><td>7.67(40)</td><td>8.75(66)</td><td>1.09</td></tr><tr><td>Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH</td><td>Cincinnati Reds</td><td>147</td><td>8.49 mph </td><td>10.84</td><td>10.63(56)</td><td>12.19(50)</td><td>1.56</td></tr><tr><td>Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA</td><td>Philadelphia Phillies</td><td>149</td><td>9.99 mph </td><td>10.40</td><td>10.63(54)</td><td>9.90(49)</td><td>-0.727</td></tr><tr><td>Coors Field, Denver, CO</td><td>Colorado Rockies</td><td>142</td><td>7.85 mph </td><td>10.26</td><td>10.66(79)</td><td>10.22(48)</td><td>-0.444</td></tr><tr><td>Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA</td><td>Los Angeles Dodgers</td><td>146</td><td>5.75 mph </td><td>9.02</td><td>8.99(71)</td><td>9.40(53)</td><td>0.413</td></tr><tr><td>PETCO Park, San Diego, CA</td><td>San Diego Padres</td><td>148</td><td>10.07 mph </td><td>8.09</td><td>8.46(65)</td><td>6.84(45)</td><td>-1.63</td></tr><tr><td>Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX</td><td>Houston Astros</td><td>152</td><td>5.72 mph </td><td>8.38</td><td>7.80(61)</td><td>9.58(45)</td><td>1.77</td></tr><tr><td>U.S. Cellular Field, Chicago, IL</td><td>Chicago White Sox</td><td>150</td><td>10.83 mph </td><td>9.32</td><td>9.29(51)</td><td>9.65(35)</td><td>0.359</td></tr><tr><td>Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON</td><td>Toronto Blue Jays</td><td>143</td><td>8.18 mph </td><td>9.80</td><td>9.27(48)</td><td>11.07(48)</td><td>1.79</td></tr><tr><td>AT&T Park, San Francisco, CA</td><td>San Francisco Giants</td><td>143</td><td>14.65 mph </td><td>9.03</td><td>10.18(53)</td><td>8.90(51)</td><td>-1.28</td></tr><tr><td>Jacobs Field, Cleveland, OH</td><td>Cleveland Indians</td><td>142</td><td>9.94 mph </td><td>9.27</td><td>9.57(60)</td><td>9.95(47)</td><td>0.376</td></tr><tr><td>Angel Stadium of Anaheim, Anaheim, CA</td><td>Los Angeles Angels</td><td>146</td><td>6.31 mph </td><td>8.47</td><td>9.57(48)</td><td>8.16(31)</td><td>-1.41</td></tr><tr><td>Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL</td><td>Chicago Cubs</td><td>141</td><td>10.88 mph </td><td>9.25</td><td>8.93(57)</td><td>9.67(47)</td><td>0.739</td></tr><tr><td>Comerica Park, Detroit, MI</td><td>Detroit Tigers</td><td>142</td><td>10.01 mph </td><td>8.93</td><td>8.27(64)</td><td>9.60(50)</td><td>1.34</td></tr><tr><td>Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL</td><td>Tampa Bay Devil Rays</td><td>142</td><td>1.00 mph </td><td>10.15</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA</td><td>Pittsburgh Pirates</td><td>142</td><td>7.51 mph </td><td>9.25</td><td>9.42(64)</td><td>9.10(46)</td><td>-0.321</td></tr><tr><td>Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO</td><td>St. Louis Cardinals</td><td>143</td><td>9.55 mph </td><td>9.18</td><td>8.29(65)</td><td>10.04(42)</td><td>1.75</td></tr><tr><td>Turner Field, Atlanta, GA</td><td>Atlanta Braves</td><td>140</td><td>9.74 mph </td><td>9.51</td><td>9.71(59)</td><td>9.90(47)</td><td>0.186</td></tr><tr><td>Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY</td><td>New York Yankees</td><td>144</td><td>12.13 mph </td><td>10.28</td><td>10.15(55)</td><td>11.86(49)</td><td>1.72</td></tr><tr><td>Fenway Park, Boston, MA</td><td>Boston Red Sox</td><td>144</td><td>9.65 mph </td><td>10.74</td><td>10.19(62)</td><td>11.15(54)</td><td>0.961</td></tr><tr><td>Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome, Minneapolis, MN</td><td>Minnesota Twins</td><td>144</td><td>1.00 mph </td><td>8.84</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>RFK Memorial Stadium, Washington, </td><td>Washington Nationals</td><td>140</td><td>8.90 mph </td><td>8.51</td><td>8.55(69)</td><td>8.01(63)</td><td>-0.541</td></tr><tr><td>Dolphin Stadium, Miami, FL</td><td>Florida Marlins</td><td>139</td><td>11.00 mph </td><td>8.51</td><td>8.37(54)</td><td>9.06(50)</td><td>0.685</td></tr><tr><td>Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ</td><td>Arizona Diamondbacks</td><td>142</td><td>4.63 mph </td><td>10.20</td><td>9.91(57)</td><td>11.56(34)</td><td>1.65</td></tr></table>

[MarkusM]

Markuksella olisi varmasti tietoa siitä miten tuulen suunta vaikuttaa syöttö- ja lyöntityöskentelyyn.

En ole tutkinut mutta mielestäni ainoastaan voimakas ristituuli voi vaikuttaa syöttöihin ja sekin varsin vähän, syötön nopeuteen tuulella voi olla vain mitätön merkitys mutta syötön tarkkuuteen ehkä hieman enemmän.

Stadionin tuuliolojen mallinnus on hemmetin vaikeaa, on melko helppo katsoa play-by-play datoista miten eri tuulitilanteissa on käynyt mutta otokset jäävät usein liian pieniksi ja eri muuttujia tilanteissa on loputtomasti. Yleisesti voi kuitenkin sanoa että ainakin cf tuulen tapauksessa ulospäin puhaltavan tuulen vaikutus eroaa suuresti sisäänpäin puhaltavasta.

Esim 2004 from/to juoksukeskiarvot:
0 - 10 mph
From CF 9.20
To CF 9.25

11- 20 mph
From CF 8.86
To CF 10.42

RF/LF tuulessa syöttäjän ja lyöjien kätisyydet alkavat vaikuttaa paljon. Itselläni olisi tulevalla offseasonilla tarkoitus mallintaa eri stadionien sekä eri pelaajatyyppien tuulivaikutuksen mahdollisimman tarkasti eri tilanteissa mutta täytyy katsoa tuleeko tuosta mitään.